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The last major tournament in men’s golf begins this week at Royal Troon in South Ayrshire, Scotland, marking the 152nd edition of the Open Championship. All statistical research is from Data Golf.
The Open 1st Round Leader Bet
Tony Finau to Lead After Round 1 (+6600, DraftKings)
Tony Finau is poised for a strong start with a favorable tee time at 9:25 am, showing a consistent trend of fast beginnings in recent tournaments. He has finished in the top six after the first round in four of his last five events, including notable performances at major championships. For instance, he shot a 65 to secure second place after day one at the PGA Championship and was sixth after the opening round at the U.S. Open. Additionally, he has a history of strong first round showings in this tournament. At Troon in 2016, his debut in The Open, he carded a 67 to claim fourth position, and he was among the leaders after day one at Carnoustie in 2018 and Royal Portrush in 2019.
Finau has demonstrated his ability to score well on links courses with rounds of 66 at Royal St George’s and St Andrews in recent Opens. Currently ranked 13th in Early Round 1 Scoring Average on the PGA Tour this season, he presents an attractive bet at these odds given his morning tee-time advantage.
The Open Finishing Position Bet
Russell Henley to Finish Top 40 (-110, DraftKings)
Russell Henley’s track record in Open Championships hasn’t consistently placed him among the frontrunners, yet his current odds appear surprisingly low given his considerable talent. He boasts multiple top-10 finishes in major tournaments, including a commendable T7 at the recent U.S. Open and an unexpected T4 finish at the 2023 Masters.
Henley’s game profile aligns well with the anticipated demands of Royal Troon. His precision off the tee ensures he keeps the ball in play, while his exceptional iron play sets up scoring opportunities on challenging courses. Notably, his short game has shown significant improvement, crucial for navigating the intricate greenside areas reminiscent of venues like Pinehurst and Augusta National.
While some may view him as more likely to secure a strong finishing position rather than contend for the title, the Open Championship has a history of delivering unexpected contenders, as seen with Brian Harman’s success last season. Henley’s current form and strategic approach bear striking similarities to Harman’s, suggesting he could emerge as a formidable contender for a top finish at this year’s Open Championship.
The Open Make/Miss Cut Bet
Sahith Theegala to Make the Cut (-270, DraftKings)
The playing style of Sahith Theegala often draws comparisons to Jordan Spieth’s, characterized by a mixture of impressive highs in putting and occasional struggles with accuracy off the tee—a combination that has historically been advantageous for Spieth in the Open Championship.
In contrast to Spieth, Theegala arrives at the tournament in superior recent form. He ranks 18th in both strokes gained: putting and strokes gained: off the tee over his last 50 rounds, demonstrating proficiency in crucial aspects of the game. While his iron play is ranked 41st, adjusting for the strength of competition reveals a positive gain of nearly 0.50 strokes per round (+0.47), highlighting his ability to perform well against top-tier opponents.
Theegala’s recent showing includes an impressive T4 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open, showcasing his ability to contend on challenging courses. Despite missing the cut in last year’s Open Championship, he managed a respectable T34 finish in his debut appearance, indicating his potential to adapt and perform well on the international stage.
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