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Bills’ Josh Allen Had Worst Performance of Any QB This Year: Analysis

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Josh Allen

Getty Josh Allen on the field after being sacked against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

How bad was Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars? According to one analysis outfit, it was the worst of the entire season — not just for Allen, but among all quarterbacks in the NFL this season.

Allen completed 31 of 47 passes for 264 yards and two interceptions against the Jaguars, failing to lead the Bills into the endzone at all in the 9-6 loss. While Allen also added another 50 yards rushing, the analysis site Football Outsiders said it wasn’t enough to save his performance from a statistical standpoint.

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Was Allen’s Performance Really League-Worst?

After the Bills failed to generate much on offense against a Jacksonville defense that had otherwise struggled all season, Football Outsiders pointed the blame at Allen. The site ranked his November 7  performance last among quarterbacks in Week 9, pointing to a stat created by Football Outsiders called “defensive-adjusted yards above replacement.” This compares the performance of a player to a “replacement-level baseline” and then translates that into total yardage.

“This is now the worst game for any quarterback this season,” the site noted. “Allen finishes in last place in part because he loses 71 DYAR due to opponent adjustments, 15 more than any other quarterback. Without those adjustments, he would have been … third-worst. With the heavy burden of those adjustments, he finished worst in DYAR on throws to running backs (9-of-12 for 61 yards with an interception), throws down the middle (8-of-13 for 77 yards with an interception), and in the third quarter (6-of-10 for 64 yards with two interceptions and a sack).”

The site didn’t go into any more detail or explain how Allen would fall below some of the season’s other poor performances. The analysis would mean that the performance of Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills in his team’s 40-0 loss to the Bills — where Mills completed just 11 of 21 passes for 87 yards and four interceptions — was somehow better than Allen’s 264 yards and two interceptions on Sunday.

The analysis also seems to run counter to the dominant narrative about Allen’s season, with many oddsmakers pegging him as the favorite to take home league MVP after coming in second last season. Allen’s overall numbers this season are also nearly identical to his statistics through nine games last season.

Allen Vows to Improve

Allen put the blame on himself for Sunday’s loss to the Jaguars, saying he was a bit too loose with his play and twice using a four-letter expletive to describe his performance.

“Credit to them. They came out, they wanted it more,” Allen said, via ESPN. “We had a lot of little things add up to big things. I put the ball in danger too often. Hit us in the butt. Played like s—, excuse my language, but that starts with me.”

“Got to be smart with the football and end every drive in a kick,” Allen said. “Understanding how our defense was playing, not giving them short field. Again, I got to be better. I played like s— today.”

Allen and the Bills will get the chance to bounce back on Sunday, taking on the 2-6 New York Jets in an AFC East showdown.

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Nathan Dougherty is a sports reporter covering the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions for Heavy.com. Previously he wrote for the Rochester Business Journal and served as the assistant editor of athletic trade magazines Coaching Management, Athletic Management and Training & Conditioning. He is based out of Rochester, New York, and loves everything football. More about Nathan Dougherty

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