Getty Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen #17 and TE Dawson Knox #88
Welcome to Heavy In The Trenches, a weekly Wednesday column by Heavy NFL insider Matt Lombardo, bringing you insight on the latest storylines and rumblings around the league. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattLombardoNFL.
It’s finally here.
When the Los Angeles Rams kick off their Super Bowl title defense on Thursday, September 8, against the Buffalo Bills. It very well could be a preview of the matchup we see in 157 days in Glendale, Arizona.
As the 2022 NFL season gets underway, Heavy surveyed a dozen current NFL players, coaches, scouts and executives for their thoughts on how this season will shape up.
From sleeper teams who will defy expectations to MVP candidates not receiving enough preseason love — and which team will be last standing with the Lombardi Trophy aloft next February — opinions varied.
“The Bills are a tough, tough and really complete team,” an NFC South defensive player told Heavy, making his Super Bowl pick.
Buffalo was a popular choice among those surveyed, and for good reason.
Not only does Josh Allen return (presumably with a massive chip on his shoulder in the aftermath of last January’s 42-36 overtime loss in the AFC Divisional Round), but he seems primed to step up as the game’s premier passer. And Buffalo dropped future Hall of Famer Von Miller into a defense that produced 42 sacks and finished as the NFL’s leading unit in 2021.
While the Bills might have the combination of experience and talent across the roster to begin the season as prohibitive favorites, three players from our panelist of four active players across four different divisions picked the Philadelphia Eagles.
Quarterbacks, of course, dominated the MVP conversation. The award has been won by a quarterback every year since Adrian Peterson ran away with the hardware in 2012. But two current NFL executives believe Peterson could be joined by another running back this year.
“I think Christian McCaffrey has the chance to win the MVP and the Comeback Player of The Year,” an NFC personnel executive told Heavy. “If he stays healthy, he has a chance to lead all running backs in the NFL in rushing and receiving. Which is very unique. If they make a run, he’s going to be in the conversation.”
McCaffrey is certainly flying under the radar, that’s for sure.
As for a sleeper team to defy expectations, multiple players believe the Houston Texans are going to sneak up on some people.
“Davis Mills is a really solid young quarterback,” an AFC North player told Heavy. “Dameon Pierce is a real sleeper to have a big rookie year, and their defense will get them the ball back pretty frequently.”
GettyDavis Mills will be the starter for the Houston Texans.
Here’s a rundown of how executives, coaches, players and scouts across the league believe this season has a chance to play out.
MVP Candidate That Isn’t Being Talked About Enough
- Jalen Hurts (2)
- Justin Herbert (2)
- Christian McCaffrey (2)
- Lamar Jackson (1)
- Matt Ryan (1)
- Derek Carr (1)
- Joe Burrow (1)
- Aaron Donald (1)
- Russell Wilson (1)
- Trey Lance (1)
“I’d say Derek Carr is a sleeper MVP candidate. He’s gotten the most improved weapons around him, but they also added a better coordinator, the best wide receiver in the game, an improved defense, and that’s all in addition to guys he already had, like Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. He knows how to win big games, and the help around him, I think, will help propel him into an MVP.” — NFC West starting offensive player
Sleeper Team That Will Defy Expectations
- Houston Texans (3)
- New York Jets (2)
- Miami Dolphins (2)
- Baltimore Ravens (2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (1)
- Indianapolis Colts (1)
- Carolina Panthers (1)
- Minnesota Vikings (1)
“The Ravens are a team that I think could surprise a lot of people. They were the top seed in the AFC until they got decimated by injuries last year. Plus, in my opinion, Lamar Jackson looks like a man with something to prove this year.” — AFC South starting defensive player
Super Bowl Picks
- Philadelphia Eagles (4)
- Los Angeles Chargers (3)
- Buffalo Bills (2)
- Green Bay Packers (2)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1)
- Los Angeles Rams (1)
- Cincinnati Bengals (1)
“I like Buffalo and Philly in the Super Bowl. The Eagles’ roster is really good. The key thing for them is [quarterback Jalen Hurts] has got to play well. I think he can. I think he’s kind of like Baker [Mayfield]. Those guys have to stay in their lane and not try to do too much or [do] what they can’t do. Don’t try to take over a game by yourself.
“Just go with the flow of the game, and not screw it up, because you have enough talent on both sides of the ball to win. I think the whole chemistry is right for them. I think Philly is going to be really, really solid.” — NFC personnel executive
What to Make of the Davante Adams-Less Packers?
For better or worse, this is going to be a very different Green Bay Packers team this season.
Aaron Rodgers, the two-time reigning league MVP, returns behind center, but it is difficult to imagine the Packers’ receiving corps being nearly as explosive as in years past. Especially with Davante Adams, and his 123 catches in 2021 for 1,553 yards and 11 touchdowns, now wearing silver and black in Las Vegas.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is gone, too, now in Kansas City.
Despite losses on offense, the Packers remain a chic Super Bowl pick among media and fans in what is an NFC that is as wide open as we have seen in recent memory. One former Packers star, and Super Bowl MVP, believes the optimism is more than justified — despite the wholesale changes in Rodgers’ supporting cast.
“The Packers are interesting because they do have one of the best quarterbacks ever,” former Packers wide receiver Desmond Howard told Heavy in a conversation as part of his partnership with Town House.
Rodgers completed his fourth consecutive season with more than 4,000 passing yards while leading the Packers to a third consecutive NFC North crown. Howard said he believed Rodgers’ influence over the locker room, and the fact that he remains among the game’s premier passers, will soften the blow of the losses on offense.
“You’re talking about Aaron Rodgers being a first-ballot Hall of Famer,” Howard said. “That, to me, is the thing that could keep the Packers optimistic. Despite losing Davante Adams and maybe having a receiving corps that’s unproven, you’ve got the guy who is going to make them better.
“You hear teammates talk about Aaron Rodgers, and they’ll let you know that when he’s on the field, you have to elevate your game. That’s a rare characteristic to carry. Tom Brady is the same way. Because of his mere presence, you automatically feel as though you have to elevate your game, and that’s what the Packers’ young receivers are going to have to do.”
GettyPackers quarterback Aaron Rodgers expects improvement by young wide receivers.
The Packers return starters Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, so there is a veteran presence, along with offseason addition Sammy Watkins, in an otherwise young receiving corps.
If Rodgers is able to carry a revamped receiving corps, without the benefit of former offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s guidance, on a long playoff run, it may be one of the more impressive accomplishments of his career. Hackett is now the head coach of the Denver Broncos.
Defensively, the Packers have a group capable of leading a Super Bowl charge.
Anchoring the Packers’ defensive line, Kenny Clark remains one of the more versatile run stuffers and interior pass rushers in the sport. Jarran Reed, who will play alongside him at defensive end, was a major addition for general manager Brian Gutekunst.
There’s a very real chance the Packers’ defense — loaded with playmakers at all three levels — fuels Green Bay’s success. It could finish the season ranked among the league’s five best units.
But will it be enough?
Can Rodgers, buttressed by an elite defense, lead the Packers to new heights without Adams?
Some inside the league are skeptical.
“I’m really surprised by all of these gurus and experts out there predicting the Packers having their best team yet, and going to the Super Bowl,” an NFC personnel executive told Heavy on the condition of anonymity to discuss another team freely. “I don’t get it. I don’t get it at all.
“I understand you have a damn good quarterback, but you gave away his weapon. His most dangerous and most consistent weapon. All of these people think the Packers will be better, and I’m sitting here just asking myself, ‘How’? Now he’s going to spread the ball around to four different wide receivers rather than one, well, that one caught 24 touchdowns last year.”
Likewise, a current player in the NFC South thinks the Packers could be primed to be unseated by a division rival.
“I really like Minnesota a lot, and think they could surprise some people this year,” the player told Heavy. “The Vikings were really solid last year, and I like their new additions both on the coaching staff and the roster.”
GettyJulio Jones catches a pass at Buccaneers training camp.
Quote of the Week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles on Julio Jones: “He’s kind of gotten to the point where he’s returned to his old self. … Right now, he can play. We have a bunch of receivers that can play, so the pitch count should be kind of even depending on who we play and how we play it. We think he can lend a lot for us — we’ve just got to knock on wood and keep him healthy.”
Julio Jones’ being anywhere close to “his old self” would be a major boon for the Buccaneers’ offense.
Be it health concerns, poor fitness or lack of usage, Jones was far from the two-time All-Pro and seven-time Pro Bowler he was in Atlanta.
Uniting with Tom Brady could bring out the best in Jones and perhaps turn back the clock.
Just two seasons ago, Matt Ryan produced a 131.5 passer rating on Jones’ 65 targets, which could be a harbinger of what Jones brings Brady and the Buccaneers. That’s presuming the 12-year veteran is as motivated and in as peak physical shape as Bowles suggests.
If Jones can stay healthy and motivated, and the Buccaneers can keep him involved in the offense, this is going to be an even more difficult offense to defend than it has been since Brady’s arrival in 2020.
Final Thought
I’m really perplexed by the lack of buzz around the Cincinnati Bengals entering the 2022 season.
There is, of course, the very real phenomenon of the Super Bowl loser struggling to make it back to the big game the following year. And the AFC is more talented than ever, with as many as eight teams having a legitimate shot of reaching the Super Bowl.
But, I’d put the Bengals very much on that list.
After all, Joe Burrow will be entering his second season with Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals really addressed their most glaring roster deficiencies: La’el Collins at right tackle, Alex Cappa at offensive guard, Ted Karras at center and Hayden Hurst at tight end.
Shopping at the top of the free agent market doesn’t always indicate future success, but these are big-time and proven commodities upgrading a roster that won 10 games and came 15 or so yards shy of attempting a game-tying field goal in the Super Bowl — largely because the offensive line collapsed.
FanDuel SportsBook gives the Bengals the 12th best odds (+2200) to win the Super Bowl.
Burrow plays the game at a cerebral level matched by few in the sport and will now be doing so behind a revamped veteran offensive line. Cincinnati invested heavily in the secondary in the NFL draft, using three of the team’s first five picks in 2022 in the secondary, and this is one of the more balanced offenses in the league.
The AFC is undoubtedly a gauntlet, but that the Bengals are entering it flying so far under the radar is one of the biggest surprises of the preseason.