Getty Bears general manager Ryan Poles could be overpaying for Keenan Allen in 2024.
The Chicago Bears are carrying several big-money contracts on their books into the 2024 season, but one contract — belonging to Keenan Allen — is viewed as a bit of an overpay even though they did not negotiate the terms of the deal.
Bleacher Report analyst Brad Gagnon recently examined each NFL team’s “most overpaid player” following the first month of 2024 free agency and locked in on the $23.1 million salary-cap hit the Bears have taken on for Allen’s services in 2024.
To be fair, Gagnon wrote that he does not consider any player “overpaid” on the Bears’ current roster, but he also questioned whether Allen — who turns 32 this month — is worth the price at his age. Allen carries the team’s second-largest cap hit into the 2024 season behind only star edge rusher Montez Sweat (roughly $25.08 million).
“I wouldn’t call anyone on the Bears overpaid,” Gagnon wrote on April 9. “Their five big-money guys (Montez Sweat, D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Jaylon Johnson and Tremaine Edmunds) have all earned their green. That said, Allen has lacked consistency and durability at times and may be beyond his prime ahead of a $23.1 million age-32 season.”
The Bears are not the ones who signed Allen to his current contract, but they did know what he would cost when they traded a fourth-round pick to the Los Angeles Chargers to acquire him back on March 14. They may also feel the $23.1 million price tag is worth it to have a six-time Pro Bowl pass-catcher on their roster, even if only for one season.
The danger, of course, is that Allen could leave them behind in 2025 NFL free agency.
Will Bears Manage to Extend Keenan Allen Beyond 2024?
The Bears made a big splash when they traded for Allen earlier this offseason. Many expected they would add more receiving talent to their roster for 2024 with Darnell Mooney — at the time — expected to depart in free agency and their Chase Claypool experiment ending in a dud midway through last year’s campaign. Still, Allen was a substantial acquisition for Shane Waldron’s new offense in Chicago next season.
Allen has finished with more than 1,000 receiving yards in six of his 11 NFL seasons and is coming off a final season in L.A. in which he hauled in a career-high 108 receptions. His 10,530 career receiving yards already make him the most accomplished receiving talent to ever join Chicago’s roster. And with Moore set to play opposite him in 2024, the Bears could potentially have a top-five receiving duo in the league for next year.
How likely is it that Allen remains in Chicago for the long term, though?
Allen is now the most prestigious player projected to hit 2025 free agency for the Bears and could be seeking a pay raise more in line with the top NFL receivers if he maintains his 2023 level of play. The highest-paid receivers — Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp — are all in their 30s and making more than $26 million annually.
The Bears might not be willing to rush to an extension with Allen, though. Not only does it make more sense for them to first see how Allen plays in 2024, but they also must figure out what to do next with Moore, who is a free agent after 2025. The Bears could also have less motivation to retain Allen if they use their No. 9 pick in 2024 on a new receiver.
Bears Draft Plans at WR May Dictate Keenan Allen Strategy
The first-round-receiver possibility is likely the biggest motivation for the Bears to take their time figuring out their next steps with Allen. With the ninth overall pick in 2024, they could potentially land one of the top three receiving talents in the class — Marvin Harrision Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze — depending on how the board falls.
Chicago is also making sure to do its homework on all three of them, just in case such a scenario plays out in their favor and makes the most sense for their long-term future.
The Bears have already hosted official Top 30 visits with Harrison (via The Athletic’s Kevin Fishbain), Nabers (via NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport) and Odunze (Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer) over the past few weeks. While none of them may still be available at No. 9 overall, the chances of one of them falling to the Bears increase if four quarterbacks come off the board in the first eight selections of the draft.
Now, just because one of the three could be available does not mean the Bears do not have other priorities for the No. 9 pick. They could reasonably look to take one of the top defensive players in the class, either an edge rusher or a three-technique defensive tackle. If Notre Dame left tackle Joe Alt slides, he, too, could be a candidate for the pick. There also remains the possibility that the Bears wish to trade down for more assets.
Until the draft passes, though, it is difficult to properly examine the outlook for Allen with the Bears without the full context of how their receiving room might look.