Despite scoring 24 and 29 points in 2 of his past 3 games, our dfsPro model projects D.J. Burns Jr. to fall short of his 14.5-point betting line. Our model also suggests that Mohamed Diarra, the N.C. State Wolfpack’s power forward, should put together a double-digit rebounding game against Purdue.
N.C. State hopes to log its 10th straight win in tournament play (ACC and NCAA Tournament), while Purdue wants to continue its revenge tour for last season’s Round of 64 meltdown. Below, find my analysis and breakdown for these 2 AI-powered Final 4 player props and my thoughts on this college basketball game between the N.C. State Wolfpack and the Purdue Boilermakers!
Final 4 Player Props for April 6
D.J. Burns Jr. Under 14.5 Points (-125) – BetRivers
Burns will have his biggest challenge yet this season when he goes up against 2-time National Player of the Year winner Zach Edey, a 7-foot-4 interior monster. Throughout the NCAA Tournament, Burns has become a fan favorite due to his Jokic-like play, using quick spins, light footwork, soft touch, and his wide frame to score against opponents.
However, Edey is a different beast to try to score on in and around the paint. Since Burns does not shoot 3s and scarcely shoots outside of the paint, this is a nightmare matchup for him; he won’t get offensive rebounds against Edey or score over him because he’s only 6-foot-9 and lacks the necessary vertical athleticism to do so.
Burns could also get into significant foul trouble trying to defend Edey, as the Boilermakers rank fifth nationally in opponent fouls per game. With his size and strength, Edey is simply an impossible cover at the collegiate level.
In his past 4 games, Burns has committed at least 3 fouls in all but 1 of those matchups. Edey’s interior presence will just accentuate Burns’ foul trouble even more, as referees have not figured out how to officiate someone as massive and strong as the Purdue big man.
Mohamed Diarra Over 9.5 Rebounds (-150) – BetRivers
Diarra’s elevated rebounding throughout tournament play has been a positive catalyst for N.C. State’s historic run. Throughout the 2023-24 regular season, Diarra averaged 6.6 rebounds, but that average has skyrocketed to 12.9 rebounds in his past 8 games.
Diarra has recorded 10 or more rebounds in 7 of those games, and in the 1 game in which he failed to reach double-digit boards, he only played 23 minutes. Expect Diarra to be on the floor for most of this matchup.
Diarra also has the luxury of not being Edey’s primary defender, allowing him to crash the defensive glass hard and not focus on boxing out the 7-foot-4 National Player of the Year. Since he will be assigned to Trey Kaufman-Renn, Diarra has a better chance of staying out of foul trouble.
One Last Thought
Purdue has been steamrolling opponents through its first 4 games of the NCAA Tournament, but laying 9.5 points is too much for a largely unproven team. The Boilers have been susceptible to upsets in recent history, as evidenced by last season’s Round of 64 loss to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson.
N.C. State’s defense has been tremendous during the tournament, holding opponents to just 35.3% shooting from the field and 23.9% from behind the arc. The Wolfpack have also outrebounded opponents by 4 rebounds per game, demonstrating improvement on the glass, which will be necessary against this Purdue squad.
Our dfsPro gives Purdue roughly an 80% chance of winning this matchup, but don’t be surprised if the Wolfpack keep it close due to their stout defense and improved play.
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Final 4 Player Props: DJ Burns Faces Tough Scoring Matchup Against Edey