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As March Madness continues, our AI-powered model keeps churning out value bets. More specifically, Houston’s lead guard, Jamal Shead, is projected to outperform his 3-point betting line against Texas A&M. The Aggies have sometimes struggled to defend the perimeter throughout the 2023-24 regular season, giving Houston’s guards an advantage.
The slate of games on Sunday, March 24, includes No. 9 Northwestern vs. No. 1 UConn, No. 9 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Houston and No. 13 Yale vs. No. 5 San Diego State. Below, I will dive into our model’s favorite March Madness bets and detail the analysis behind them.
College Basketball Player Props for March 23
Jamal Shead Over 1.5 Threes (+110) – Caesars
Sensational would adequately describe Shead’s 2023-24 campaign for the Houston Cougars. Shead, a senior, has averaged 13.0 points, 6.3 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 2.6 steals per game on 41.2% shooting from the field and 32.1% from 3-point land. Houston’s lead guard also has knocked down 1.2 3-pointers per game throughout the season.
Our AI-powered model expects Shead to have a big game against the Texas A&M Aggies, projecting him to hit 1.7 three-pointers, 0.5 more than his season average. That is a 41.67% difference.
Texas A&M ranks 64th in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to hit 33.9% of their threes this season. That mark is 175th in the nation. In their past three games, the Aggies’ perimeter defense has been even worse, giving up a 42.7% hit rate to opponents from deep.
That is the worst mark in that span among teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament, which could spell trouble for the Aggies and lead to profitable betting for us.
Lamont Butler Over 2.5 Rebounds (-164) – Caesars
6-foot-2 Lamont Butler is not expected to lead the San Diego State Aztecs in rebounding. Still, his contribution on the glass is vital for a team that ranks merely 163rd in defensive rebounding percentage.
The Aztecs rank 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season but have struggled to finish off defensive possessions. Luckily, the Yale Bulldogs don’t grab many offensive rebounds, and that bodes well for Butler and the Aztecs.
Lamont’s rebounding line is set at 2.5 rebounds, just below his average of 2.6 rebounds; however, our dfsPro model projects him to finish with 4.4 rebounds, a massive 62.96% increase from his season average.
As I have always said on lines like this: Plug your nose and drink the juice. The value is there with Buter’s rebounding prop.
One Last Thought
In our model, the No. 1 seed UConn Huskies are favored by 14 points over the No. 9 seed Northwestern Wildcats, which matches the lines set on most major sportsbooks.
While 14 points is a significant gap in a No. 1 vs. No. 9 matchup, UConn has a substantial frontcourt advantage in size and skill.
The Wildcats will continue to be without their starting center, Matthew Nicholson. At 7 feet tall, he could have kept up with UConn’s big man, Donovan Clingan, if he were available.
Additionally, Ty Berry, one of Northwestern’s best shooting guards, will remain sidelined.
Northwestern also plays at a similar pace (340th in adjusted tempo) as UConn, an advantage for the Huskies.
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