The opening games of the NCAA Tournament have settled, with several upsets shattering brackets nationwide. The No. 14 seed Oakland Golden Grizzlies beat the No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats behind Oakland’s new hero, Jack Gohlke.
Despite Gohlke pouring in 32 points, our AI-powered model suggests he will not come close to the same output he had in the Golden Grizzlies’ Round of 64 game versus the Wildcats.
Below are a few March Madness props featuring players who will overperform and underperform, giving us a betting advantage. Let’s dive into these DFS projections and provide a betting analysis for the Round of 32.
March Madness Props for March 23
Jermaine Couisnard Over 17.5 Points (-105) – Caesars
After an exceptional 40-point explosion in the Round of 64, our AI-powered model projects Couisnard to follow that up with another massive performance against the Creighton Bluejays.
Couisnard has averaged 16.1 points per game on 40% shooting from the floor and 33.7% from behind the arc, providing the Ducks with solid perimeter scoring to complement their big man, N’Faly Dante.
While this line is set nearly 1.5 points above his average, Couisnard has been on fire recently. He has averaged 22 points on 19.1 field goal attempts per game in his past seven outings.
Our dfsPro Daily model projects Couisnard to finish this game against Creighton with 19.6 points, 3.5 points higher (+21.74%) than his season average.
Jack Gohlke Under 13.5 Points (-104) – Caesars
It physically pains me to fade a March Madness hero after such a historic performance, but our AI-powered model suggests that Jack Gohlke could return to Earth in this matchup against the N.C. State Wolfpack.
In the Golden Grizzlies’ Round of 64 game against Kentucky, Gohlke dropped 32 points on 10-for-20 shooting from behind the arc, which is just one shy of an NCAA Tournament record.
Our model predicts that Gohlke will finish with 11.7 points, 8.59% lower than his season average of 12.8 points.
Gohlke has played phenomenal basketball in the past 11 games, averaging 18.3 points on 45% shooting from the field and deep. However, Gohlke’s weakness is that he does not have much of an offensive game off the dribble or inside the arc. Gohlke is a three-point specialist, scoring nearly all his points via threes.
In that span, Gohlke has only taken 0.4 field goal attempts per game from inside of the arc and only averaged 1.5 free throws per game.
Additionally, N.C. State’s perimeter defense has been exceptional in its past three games, holding opponents to just 27% shooting from three-point land. Expect the Wolfpack to run Gohlke off the line the entire game, allowing him few opportunities for three-point looks.
Final Note
The N.C. State Wolfpack have won six consecutive games, including five in five days during the ACC Tournament. During that six-game stretch, the Wolfpack have beaten opponents by 10.1 points per game, holding them to only 42.8% shooting overall and 30.8% from deep.
Additionally, N.C. State’s offense has been much improved throughout tournament play, shooting 48.8% overall from the floor. The Wolfpack will have a matchup against Oakland for a shot at the Sweet 16.
Tune in tomorrow for more March Madness player props, predictions, advice, and analysis.
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March Madness Bets: AI Model Suggests Fading Jack Gohlke in Round of 32