NBA Playoff Props: Can McDaniels’ Elevated Offensive Play Save Minnesota?

Jaden McDaniels

Getty Jaden McDaniels shoots a corner 3-pointer against the Dallas Mavericks.

Few people could have predicted that the Dallas Mavericks would jump out to a 3-0 series lead against Minnesota, especially after the Timberwolves knocked off the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Semifinals.

Yet, here we are.

The Mavericks are merely one game away from their first NBA Finals appearance since the 2010-11 season, while the Timberwolves are on the brink of elimination. Can anyone save them?

Our dfsPro model is high on one player for Game 4: Jaden McDaniels. After a rough Game 2 performance, McDaniels bounced back, scoring 15 points on 3-for-4 shooting from 3-point land. 

Find our breakdown for McDaniels below to see whether he can not only eclipse his point and 3-pointers made totals but also help the Timberwolves live to see another day.

NBA Playoff Props for May 28

Jaden McDaniels Over 10.5 Points (+100) & Over 1.5 Made 3s (+140) – DraftKings

Getting plus money on both of these McDaniels props is phenomenal value. And our model believes so, too.

Our model projects McDaniels to finish with 13.7 points, 3.2 above his season average (and betting line) of 10.5. Further, it expects McDaniels to record 2.1 made 3s on just shy of five attempts. McDaniels has knocked down at least two 3s and scored 11 or more points in four of his past five games! 

His increased offensive role is partially due to how Dallas has been defending him and the recent struggles of Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony-Towns; however, he’s also just being more aggressive on that end of the floor.

After being a somewhat mediocre 3-point shooter this season, McDaniels has been challenged to knock down those shots by a Dallas defense that does not mind sagging off the uber-athletic wing. And he has done just that.

Another promising element to his points bet, in particular, is the volume he has had recently. In three of the past five games, McDaniels has made double-digit field goal attempts, which is usually enough for a near-50% shooter from the field to score 11 points. 

McDaniels will likely be a massive part of the Timberwolves’ offense again due to how efficient he has scored the ball in this past five-game stretch. 

One Last Thought

Anthony-Towns has struggled shooting the ball in the first three games of this Western Conference Finals series against Dallas. 

In fact, KAT has shot merely 27.8% from the field and 13.6% from behind the arc in that stretch. Talk about a horrible time to get cold.

Despite his inefficiency, KAT has still scored in double digits in all 14 of the Timberwolves’ playoff games this season. Additionally, Anthony-Towns has made a concerted effort to contribute to the game in other ways, including on the glass; he has recorded double-digit rebounds in three of his past five games.

At +195 odds to log a double-double, KAT has an implied probability of 33.9% to score at least 10 points and pull down at least 10 rebounds; however, he has a 60% hit rate over the past five games.

Even though the T’Wolves are down 0-3 in the series, don’t expect them to roll over. And KAT won’t roll over, either.