NBA Playoff Props: Pacers Guards Must Step Up Offensively in Game 6

Can the Milwaukee Bucks become just the 14th team in NBA history to come back from a 3-1 series deficit to win and advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals?

A Bucks series win is unlikely, especially given the deficit, but Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and Damian Lillard (Achilles) will test how they feel in warm-ups ahead of Game 6 against the Indiana Pacers.

While it is difficult to project what Giannis or Lillard would be capable of if they were to play and how that would impact the performance of other healthy Bucks players like Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, and Patrick Beverley, we still have a strong indication of how certain Pacers players will perform.

Our dfsPro model projects Andrew Nembhard to be busy offensively, while T.J. McConnell could knock down at least one 3-pointer in Game 6.

Let’s analyze these two props below!

NBA Playoff Props for May 2

Andrew Nembhard Over 11.5 Points (-120) – BetRivers

Nembhard has been a pivotal piece for the Pacers on both ends of the floor, but his offense recently has been eye-opening.

Despite only averaging 9.2 points on 49.8% shooting this season for Indiana, Nembhard has scored at least 12 points in four consecutive games against the Bucks, putting his fluid mid-range shot on display.

In fact, Nemberhard has averaged 15.8 points on 61.9% shooting overall and 46.7% from 3-point land in that stretch; he has been one of the Pacers’ more consistent scorers in this series.

Milwaukee also has allowed opposing shooting guards to score the fifth-most points of any team in the NBA this season, which makes sense given the Bucks’ poor perimeter defense. 

Even though Beverley has helped the Bucks in this area, he will continue to be Tyrese Haliburton’s primary defender, leaving much weaker defenders to guard Nembhard.

Our AI-powered model projects Nembhard will finish with 12.5 points, 3.3 more (+35.87%) than his season average, on roughly 9.3 field goal attempts in Game 6.

T.J. McConnell Over 0.5 Made 3s (+205) – DraftKings

There is very little attractive about betting on McConnell to hit at least one 3-pointer, but his recent volume and the odds’ implied probability could help us get to the window.

McConnell has only hit one 3-pointer in this series, but he has shot 40.9% from deep this season and fired up at least two 3s in four of the past five games against the Bucks.

At +205 odds, DraftKings has given McConnell just a 32.79% chance to hit one 3-pointer in Game 6, but he has averaged two 3-point attempts per game in this series. Since he shoots at over 40% clip from deep, his odds have value in this spot.

One Last Thought

Milwaukee dismantled the Pacers in Game 5, outscoring them by 31 points after the end of the first quarter.

The Bucks had a productive day on the glass, as they secured 44 rebounds and scored 50 points in the paint. Further, despite missing Giannis and Lillard, they shot a highly efficient 52.4% from the field and 37.9% from behind the arc.

While the Pacers seem like an obvious choice to back in this Game 6 on their home floor, there have been rumblings that Giannis and Lillard will try to warm up tonight and see if they feel good enough to give it a go.

Because Giannis and Lillard would strongly move not only the spread but also individual player props, it might make sense to hold off on betting on any of these until we know more about their status for Game 6.

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