Getty Bobby Portis high-fives Khris Middleton during the Bucks' game against Oklahoma City.
With two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined for at least part of the Milwaukee Bucks’ first-round playoff series, Bobby Portis must step up against Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers.
Our dfsPro model projects Portis to have a big series in Antetokounmpo’s absence, while the long week off of basketball should help Haliburton return to his early-season form.
Let’s get into the breakdown for our two favorite NBA playoff props with Portis and Haliburton below!
NBA Player Props for April 21
Bobby Portis To Score 25+ Points (+370) – DraftKings
Giannis was available for most of the 2023-24 regular season, but the Bucks struggled in the nine games he was sidelined, boasting just a 4-5 record in that span.
Damian Lillard had some solid outings in Giannis’s absence; however, Portis made the most difference in those games, averaging 20.8 points on 60% shooting from the field, 64% from behind the arc, and 85% from the free throw line. Portis only scored fewer than 16 points in one of those games.
Further, Portis finished with between 18 and 20 field goal attempts in five of those nine games, an optimal volume for an efficient scorer to put up 25 or more points.
Portis scored 25 or more points in three of those nine games, boasting a hit rate of 33.3% on this prop’s line. That is more than 12% higher than the implied probability of 21.28% given with +370 odds.
The matchup for Portis is also ideal, as Indiana allows opposing power forwards to score the most points per game of any team in the NBA. The Pacers also rank second in pace this season, resulting in more possessions and scoring opportunities for both teams.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 19.5 Points (-118) – DraftKings
Since his hamstring injury, Haliburton has not consistently put up the same numbers as he was at the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign. However, one thing has not changed throughout the year: his performance against Milwaukee.
Haliburton averaged 27 points on a 53/38/91 shooting split in five games against the Bucks this season. He hit the Over on this point total in all five of those games.
Haliburton also has a size and length advantage over his potential defenders, including Lillard, Patrick Beverley, and Malik Beasley.
Additionally, the Bucks have had one of the worst point-of-attack defenses in the NBA throughout the season, as Beasley and Lillard are below-sub-par perimeter defenders. In fact, the Bucks allowed the second-most points to opposing point guards this season.
This week off for Haliburton will be a huge help, as his hamstring has been bugging him since he injured it.
One Last Thought
The Pacers have had Milwaukee’s “number” all season, winning four of their five matchups despite Giannis being available for every one of those games.
Now, Giannis is sidelined, which puts Milwaukee in a challenging position. He averaged 42.2 points, 13 rebounds, and 5.4 assists on a ridiculous 67.6% shooting from the floor. That is a substantial output that the Bucks have to replace.
Ultimately, I will be betting on the Pacers to win this series with Giannis sidelined for at least a few games. Calf injuries are incredibly challenging to return from in a short stretch. Stay updated with our dfsPro model’s daily picks and NBA playoff props throughout the postseason!