With their Eastern Conference playoff series tied 1-1, Pascal Siakam and the Indiana Pacers head home to Gainbridge Fieldhouse for a shot at getting one game closer to a first-round upset over the Milwaukee Bucks.
Siakam has taken over as the top-scoring option in the Pacers’ playoff hierarchy and should continue to post substantial offensive numbers. At the same time, Indiana should contain Damian Lillard in Game 3 at home after allowing him to explode in the first two matchups.
Can our dfsPro model churn out two more winners for the NBA Playoff games on Friday, April 26? I break down the analysis for these picks below!
NBA Playoff Props for April 26
Pascal Siakam Over 27.5 Points (-108) – DraftKings
It took a few months of adjusting to life with the Pacers, but Siakam finally found his place, becoming the first player to open the playoffs with back-to-back 35-point, 10-rebound games since Wilt Chamberlain did it more than 50 years ago.
Siakam finished Game 1 with a little less coverage due to Damian Lillard’s explosive 35-point first half, which resulted in a surprising Bucks win; however, Siakam still put together an incredible outing, finishing with 36 points and 13 rebounds.
The question heading into Game 3 is whether or not Siakam will continue his hot offensive play on the Pacers’ home floor.
With two-time MVP and starting power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo still listed as doubtful for Friday’s Game 3, Siakam has more than a good chance of posting another monstrous 30-point game. Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton have had no answer for Siakam’s versatile offense, which will continue to be the case.
The last key point to touch on is the clear playoff hierarchy that has been formed. Siakam has been heavily leaned on at the beginning of this series because of his playoff experience and championship pedigree. Shockingly, Tyrese Haliburton has taken merely a combined 17 field goal attempts through the first two playoff games.
Damian Lillard Under 31.5 Points (-110) – DraftKings
On the surface, it seems ridiculous to fade Lillard after his first two games of the playoffs, which included an absurd 35-point first half in Game 1.
However, the likelihood of Lillard continuing to shoot 50% from 3-point land on ridiculous volume (12 3-point attempts per game) is slim, especially considering that Indiana holds opposing point guards to the >second-fewest 3-pointers made per game this season.
Additionally, Lillard has not been as strong a performer on the road as he has been at home throughout this season, averaging 2.3 fewer points away from Fiserv on just 41.9% shooting from the floor and 35.1% from 3-point land.
Our model projects Lillard to score 24 points, 7.5 points fewer than his betting line and 0.3 fewer than his season average.
One Last Thought
Game 2 was a stronger indication of what we can expect from the Pacers throughout the remainder of this first-round playoff series.
Indiana’s nerves have calmed on the heels of Siakam’s historic start to the postseason. He became the first player to record back-to-back 35-point and 10-rebound games to open the playoffs since Chamberlain in 1967.
The Pacers controlled the paint, scoring 16 more points while also pulling down 5 more rebounds than Milwaukee. Indiana also only turned the ball over five times!
Without Giannis, the Bucks don’t have the offensive or defensive firepower to keep up with this high-octane Pacers team. I expect Haliburton will improve as the playoffs continue, too.
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NBA Playoff Props: Will Pascal Siakam Keep Up Historic Playoff Start?