Getty Fletcher Loyer pumps up the crowd during a Purdue home game.
On Friday, March 29, the second night of the Sweet 16, the No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers in a shootout between two high-octane offenses.
Our AI-powered model projects Purdue’s sharpshooter Fletcher Loyer to struggle to knock down shots against the Zags, while Anton Watson could be in for a massive day on the glass despite 7-foot-4 Zach Edey’s paint prowess.
Find our dfsPro projections and the analysis for those college basketball bets below!
College Basketball Player Props for March 29
Fletcher Loyer Under 9.5 Points (+112) – BetRivers
Loyer has had to take a momentary step back on the offensive end this season in favor of Braden Smith and Lance Jones, who are better overall scorers. However, Loyer has still averaged 10.5 points per game on 42.6% shooting from the floor and 44.9% from 3-point land, far surpassing his shooting split (37/33/79) last season.
Still, Loyer has surpassed his point total (9.5) in only 4 of his past 12 games, indicating less offensive reliance on him. Moreover, in four of Loyer’s past five games, he has taken 6 or fewer field goal attempts, which is a concerning low volume for his Over backers. Opponents are adjusting to the fact that Loyer is a below-average scorer inside the arc, so they can run him off the 3-point line.
Our AI model projects Loyer to finish with 8.1 points, which is 2.4 points fewer (-22.86%) than his season average of 10.5. At plus-money odds, the value is here with fading Loyer.
Anton Watson Over 6.5 Rebounds (-127) – BetRivers
Gonzaga could use as much help on the glass as possible against the Purdue Boilermakers. Graham Ike will likely be occupied solely with boxing out Zach Edey, not actually pulling down the rebound. The Zags’ other top rebounder, Watson, will be leaned on to swoop in and grab those boards.
During the 2023-24 campaign, Watson averaged 7.2 rebounds per game, 0.7 more than his betting line (6.5). Further, he has pulled down 7 or more rebounds in 3 of his past 4 games, all of which were in the WCC and NCAA Tournaments.
Our dfsPro projections have Watson bringing down 8.2 rebounds against the Boilermakers, which is 1 more than his season average, a 13.89% difference.
One Last Thought
Purdue won by nearly 40 points in its Round of 32 game against the Utah State Aggies, displaying its exceptional ball movement and shot-making, but the Boilermakers could be in trouble in this matchup against Gonzaga.
Gonzaga has won 16 of its past 18 games, with only two losses against Saint Mary’s. The past 12 games, in particular, have been exceptional, as the Zags have shot roughly 55% from the field and 43% from behind the arc in that stretch.
The Bulldogs’ superb shooting efficiency isn’t the only area where they have been elite recently, as their 8.3 turnovers per game is also uber-impressive. If that average had been maintained throughout the entire 2023-24 season, they would have ranked third in the nation in that category.
The Bulldogs are among the few teams that can keep up with Purdue on the glass, ranking 14th in total rebounding rate this season. Gonzaga has been firing on all cylinders offensively, making it a solid underdog to back, especially since it is getting 6 points.
Stay updated with our dfsPro Daily picks and analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament.