Getty Jalen Brunson fights for a loose ball with Gary Trent Jr. in the third quarter of a game.
Entering his fourth NBA season, Jalen Brunson will undergo the most important season of his career. The Mavericks guard is a former second-round pick who has drastically exceeded expectations and become one of the best players in the 2018 class.
If Dallas is going to have success this season, Brunson will play a key role. However, he is entering the final year of his current contract.
This puts both him and the Mavericks in an interesting situation. It will be the biggest year of Brunson’s career as he looks to earn the largest contract he can.
What are the expectations for Brunson this season? How much is he worth in an extension?
Off to a Great Start
While Brunson has already put together a respectable body of work through three NBA seasons, he’s off to an excellent start here in the preseason. In the Mavericks’ first game against the Utah Jazz, he produced 10 points, eight assists and five rebounds.
The eight assists are what stick out most. Everyone knows how great of a scorer off the bench Brunson is already. Last season, he averaged 12.6 points per game, good for fourth on the entire roster.
Additionally, he was second on the team in assists with 3.5 per game. There are quite a few guys around the league who have the ability to score off the bench, but not many that can also produce a high number of assists as a playmaker.
While it’s not expected that Brunson averages 8.0 assists per contest in the upcoming season, an increase in production on that front would only elevate his value in Dallas.
Brunson struggled a bit early on. Clippers’ length bothered him and they went at him a bit with Kawhi pick and rolls.
But Jalen made 2 key AND-1 plays in the 4th…this is a secondary playmaker/attacker Mavs missed last season.
One of the most important players on this roster, Brunson isn’t locked in to a long-term contract. With that in mind, if the Mavericks want to retain Brunson beyond this season, they’ll need to sign Brunson to an extension soon.
How much is he worth?
Extension Value
The last deal Brunson signed was a four-year contract worth just over $6.1 million, and he is slated to make $1.8 million this year — making him one of the best values in the NBA. But this time around, he’ll earn exponentially more than that.
John Hollinger of The Athletic applied his Expected Extension Value formula to some of the guys in Brunson’s class, pinning his value at around $57 million over three years.
This would make Brunson one of the highest paid players in Dallas at roughly $19 million per season. At 25 years old, he’s certainly worth a large deal, but perhaps not that much.
Brunson could earn a deal that’s in the same ballpark as a few guards around his same age that recently signed extensions.
- Markelle Fultz: three years, $50 million
- Gary Trent Jr.: three years, $54 million
- Dejounte Murray: four years, $64 million
Somewhere in the range of $16 million to $18 million feels right for Brunson considering he’s likely going to serve a bench role in the next few seasons, mostly backing up and sometimes playing alongside Luka Doncic. With how important he is for this team, Dallas should feel comfortable signing him to a deal of that value.