Getty Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson speaks.
The Denver Broncos are a contender, and it’s been scientifically proven.
Bookies.com recently surveyed every Super Bowl-winning QB in the salary cap era, and it included some noteworthy findings.
According to the survey, the ideal cap hit for a title team is 10.6% to 12.3% of the team’s salary cap, and the Broncos are one of only two teams with a quarterback in that cap range.
The majority of title teams are led by veterans in that 10.6% to 12.3% range. The salary cap of 2022 has been set at $208.2 million. Based on that, the optimal QB salary for next season is roughly $22 million to $25.6 million.
Amazingly, only two QBs are in that range for 2022. Both of them are suiting up for contenders. Wilson, traded to the Denver Broncos this offseason, is a $24 million cap hit. Lamar Jackson is at $23 million for the Baltimore Ravens.
In my opinion, this study is absolutely spot on. This season, Wilson will carry a reasonable cap hit of $24 million, which is the 13th-highest in the league. Compared to other elite quarterbacks, Wilson’s cap hit is low.
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The Broncos Are In a Great Cap Situation
The Broncos are in a great cap situation, right now, considering the talent on their roster. Jerry Jeudy, Patrick Surtain, and Javonte Williams are on rookie deals, and Tim Patrick ($3.86 million cap hit) and Courtland Sutton ($5.24 million cap hit) are on relatively team-friendly deals.
Nevertheless, a massive contract extension for Wilson is looming. Wilson will likely look for a deal on par with the other top quarterbacks in the NFL.
Patrick Mahomes signed a 10-year, $450 million contract with the Kansas City Chiefs, and Aaron Rodgers signed a three-year, $150 million contract with the Green Bay Packers. Therefore, I would expect Wilsons’s new deal to be in the $45 million to $52 million range annually.
The Broncos need to capitalize on their title window, now.
The Ravens Are An Underrated Contender
As the article mentioned, only one other team is in the “optimal” quarterback salary range: the Baltimore Ravens, as Lamar Jackson currently carries a cap hit of $23 million.
The Ravens were a regular-season powerhouse in 2019 finishing with a 14-2 record. In 2020, they had another strong season finishing with an 11-5 record and a trip to the Divisional Round.
However, they were decimated by injuries last season. Their top three running backs (J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill) all suffered season-ending injuries before the season even began, which was a critical blow to their run-first offense.
In addition, former All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley suffered an ankle injury and appeared in only one game, and former All-Pro cornerback Marcus Peters missed the entire season.
Jackson missed five games, as well, and the Ravens went 1-4 in those games.
During the offseason, the Ravens made some nice additions in safeties Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton and offensive linemen Morgan Moses and Tyler Linderbaum.
In a loaded AFC, all eyes are on the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Cincinnati Bengals as the Broncos’ primary competitors. However, the Ravens are a team to watch.
At full strength, this team was a legitimate contender.
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NFL Contract Study: Broncos Are In Optimal Position to Contend