Getty Aaron Jones might be a target monster in Minnesota.
The Packers selected running backs Jamaal Williams in the 4th round and Aaron Jones in the 5th round in the 2017 NFL draft.
In their first two seasons, Green Bay employed a “hot-hand” approach, making both RBs merely fringe weekly streamers. Then in 2019, Jones took off and never looked back — well, until 2023, when injuries limited Jones to a career-low 11 games.
The Vikings’ prized offseason acquisition joins a new backfield with, perhaps, minimal competition. In other words, there’s a realistic scenario where Jones takes on all he can handle, culminating in 300+ touches and massive success for fantasy managers.
Is the 29-year-old worth the investment at his RB17 ADP? Can he fend off Ty Chandler and advancing age to deliver elite or near-elite value?
How Aaron Jones Might Fare in a Sam Darnold-Led Passing Attack
Exit Kirk Cousins. Enter . . . Sam Darnold, the 26-year-old placeholder who might lead Minnesota’s passing game this season. In six starts for the Panthers in 2022, Darnold threw for only 1,143 yards–and only 176 of those yards (15.4%) came on dump-offs to running backs.
Does that mean managers should fade Jones, whose fantasy value hinges partly on targets (a robust 4.3 per game since 2019)? Not exactly. Darnold’s 2022 starts came after Carolina jettisoned Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey was healthy enough to start in four of Darnold’s 2021 starts, during which Darnold threw for an impressive 1,060 yards, with McCaffrey earning 217 of those receiving yards (20.5%). Also, it should be noted that McCaffrey was knocked out of one of those contests early in the second quarter.
It could be argued that Darnold played the best football of his career early in 2021, supported by an elite pass-catching RB. Now he’s paired with another terrific pass-catching RB in Jones.
Yes, Darnold also has the benefit of throwing to a trio of fantastic receivers. But a healthy Jones is the kind of asset Darnold has rarely enjoyed during his career. We should expect them to link up early and often.
Key Variables Are Goal Line Usage, Durability & Ty Chandler
Anytime a running back approaches his 30th birthday, managers should brace for the strong possibility of a statistical decline. While there are exceptions, betting on the probabilities is wiser than betting on hunches.
Jones is one of the most efficient RBs in NFL history, netting a cool 5.0 yards per carry for his career. But he might have less room for error unless Minnesota feeds him near the goal line. After collecting 37 rushing scores in his first four seasons, Jones has reached paydirt on the ground only 8 times in his last three campaigns.
Managers need more than 16 carries for 83 yards. While we should expect plenty of work through the air (as noted above), more work near the end zone could make him one of the highest-ceiling RBs, period.
His durability clearly is a concern. But Green Bay did an outstanding job limiting his reps. Jones has fewer career carries than Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb, for example, despite getting drafted a year earlier. Barkley and Chubb have operated more as bell cows when healthy. Jones has been more carefully preserved. Jones arguably isn’t any more of an injury risk than Barkley, Chubb, or any of his other RB contemporaries.
That leaves Chandler, the talented RB who overtook Alexander Mattison on the depth chart last season. But there’s a risk in over-estimating his 2024 usage. Chandler was a 24-year-old rookie at the start of the 2022 season, which is quite old for a player seeking to make an impact.
Last season in 2023, Chandler had an anemic three broken tackles on 102 carries. He dominated against the Broncos and Bengals–the two worst defenses with respect to yards yielded per carry. Versus every other opponent, Chandler averaged only 3.7 yards per carry.
Barring an injury (always a possibility), Jones should be a centerpiece of Minnesota’s offense, translating into 18+ touches per game. Given his ceiling, he’s more likely to be a bargain at his current ADP than a bust.