Why Saquon Barkley Is an Overvalued Fantasy RB in 2024

Day 1 of the NFL’s legal tampering period (more commonly known as free agency) upended the 2024 fantasy RB landscape.

It might take weeks or even months for casual managers to unpack the implications of Derrick Henry in Baltimore, D’Andre Swift to Chicago and more.

Perhaps just as importantly, what are the ripple effects on smaller names like Roschon Johnson, Tyjae Spears, Chase Brown and other young backs who might be draftable this summer? No fantasy player is an island. Every roster shift unleashes a wave of revised fantasy values.

That brings us to one of the biggest Day 1 stories: Saquon Barkley heading to Philly.

Entering his seventh NFL campaign, the 27-year-old still has enough juice to garner fantasy love. However, his consensus RB8 PPR average draft position reflects his realistic ceiling rather than his realistic midpoint. That spells danger.

Here’s why Barkley is overvalued heading into 2024, and why his yellow flags suggest a larger role for undervalued teammate Kenneth Gainwell.

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Overworked Saquon Barkley Is Not a Reliable Bell Cow in a QB-Centric Offense

If the Giants could do it all over again, they probably wouldn’t select Barkley No. 2 overall in the 2018 NFL draft. To be fair, this isn’t because the longtime bell cow has underwhelmed.

When healthy, he’s been one of the game’s best RBs. He was the No. 1 fantasy RB as a rookie and clocked in at No. 7 in RB fantasy points per game the following year in 2019. His 2022 resurgence after two consecutive injury-plagued campaigns reminded us of his greatness.

But Barkley’s six years in New York consisted of five losing seasons and a first-round playoff exit. The man whom GM Dave Gettleman declared “was touched by the hand of God” never had a chance to live up to supernatural expectations.

Now the former Penn State star joins an Eagles squad that has fed its RBs less and less as Jalen Hurts has strengthened his positioning as the franchise’s offensive centerpiece.

In Hurts’ first full season as the starter in 2021, Philly’s running backs were tied for No. 10 in rushing attempts. The following year, they were tied for No. 15. Then last season, they were No. 23 despite possessing a relatively efficient backfield led by the electric Swift (4.6 yards per carry) and complemented by Gainwell (4.3 yards per carry). 

Unlike the Giants, the Eagles are strong bets to reach the postseason. That means that unlike the Giants, the Eagles won’t be as incentivized to run their starting RB into the ground during the regular season — especially a RB with a storied injury history.

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200-250 Touches Is More Realistic Than 300+ for Barkley in 2024

Barkley’s contract isn’t some one-year prove-it deal. Philadelphia secured Barkley with a three-year, $37.7 million contract. His $26 million guaranteed is the second most for any current NFL RB.

The Eagles are making a long-term play, not solely a “win-now” play. Barkley has racked up 665 touches (regular season and playoffs) since the start of the 2022 season.

Philly paid him because of his outputs in 2018, 2019 and 2022. What he’s shown during the other half of his career (2020, 2021 and 2023) has oscillated between disappointing and adequate (when he’s been healthy enough to take the field).

It’s difficult to envision the Eagles treating Barkley like a bell cow — 200-250 touches is far more realistic than 300-350. His consensus RB8 average draft position assumes a heavy workload.

Managers should be wary of drafting Barkley at or even near his current market valuation. 

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Don’t Sleep on the Perennially Undervalued Kenneth Gainwell

Perhaps the Eagles will select a RB in April’s 2024 draft. Or they might tack on another veteran to help back up Barkley. But for now, all fantasy eyes should turn to Gainwell, who’s playing in the final year of his rookie deal.

Don’t let his quiet career lull you into complacency. The former Memphis workhorse has been a steady, effective presence in Philly’s backfield since entering the league in 2021.

In addition to averaging a respectable 4.4 yards per carry for his career, Gainwell has demonstrated above-average tackle-breaking abilities (including one per 14 carries in 2023) and consistently improving hands (career-best 2.7% drop rate in 2023).

He’s a bell-cow-capable backup, which is gold for fantasy managers seeking a late-round lottery ticket. His RB62 consensus average draft position makes him a nothing-to-lose snag a round or two early. Consider that he’s been a top 50 RB fantasy scorer in two of three seasons.

While Barkley’s market valuation reflects his ceiling, Gainwell’s reflects his floor, making him a superb bargain with spot-start potential.

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