Packers Forecast to Make ‘Aggressive’ Offer to Star LB in Coming Weeks

Getty Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst.

The Green Bay Packers have a big bill about to come due, and the front office should be happy to pay it.

Star edge rusher Rashan Gary probably would have signed a massive contract extension this offseason were it not for the campaign-ending knee injury he suffered against the Detroit Lions last year. Green Bay waited on a deal to see how Gary would bounce back. He has done so in a big way despite minimal field time through four games, which ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler believes has set the outside linebacker up for a huge payday this winter.

“Gary’s return from a torn right ACL has been triumphant. He has 3.5 sacks and 6 quarterback hits in a limited role (77 snaps) as the team eases him back into action,” Fowler wrote. “Green Bay is bringing him along slowly, with the hope that he’s a three-down player by later in the year. The Packers typically try to lock up key players late in their contract years, so it wouldn’t surprise if the Packers make an aggressive play to secure Gary in November or December.”

Rashan Gary Among NFL’s Best Pass-Rushers Last Year Prior to Injury

GettyOutside linebacker Rashan Gary of the Green Bay Packers works against tight end Sam LaPorta of the Detroit Lions during an NFL game in September 2023.

Exactly how much Green Bay will offer Gary is impossible to know, but that he will command a salary commensurate with the NFL’s top pass-rushers is a good bet.

That’s mostly true because Gary was one of the league’s top edge-rushers before he got hurt last year. The outside linebacker tallied 17 quarterback pressures, 12 QB hits and 6 sacks through eight games, all of which ranked in the top-10 of their respective categories league-wide at that point in the season.

Throw on top of that the fact that Gary is only 25 years old and that he has recovered nicely from the first serious injury of his career, and there is little argument against breaking the bank to keep him in green and gold.

Rashan Gary Likely to Get $100 Million-Plus Offer From Packers

GettyOutside linebacker Rashan Gary of the Green Bay Packers reacts after a sack during an NFL game against the New Orleans Saints in September 2023. 

Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers set the market for edge-rushers this summer when he inked a five-year deal worth $170 million total ($34 million annually) that included $122 million guaranteed, per Over The Cap.

That contract broke every positional record for total amount, annual average salary and guaranteed amount in NFL history. Gary probably isn’t going to get that much, but it isn’t a stretch that his contract could land somewhere in the neighborhood.

Nearly every contract prediction for Gary heading into, or during, the 2022 campaign topped out above nine-figures ($100 million) in overall value. Spotrac currently projects Gary’s market value at $26 million annually over a four-year deal ($104 million total).

However, given the premium position that Gary plays, how integral he is to the Packers’ defense and the fact that he suffered a major injury last year, the outside linebacker is almost certain to push for a five-year agreement — and is likely to get it. Extrapolating that out based on Spotrac’s projections, a five-year deal would put Gary in line for a $130 million contract with upwards of $90 million fully-guaranteed.

While that is a massive hit, it’s one the Packers should be able to afford with a young offense in which most skill position players have between two and four years before they are off their rookie contracts. Green Bay can also clear a significant amount of money off its cap sheet in 2024 by cutting or trading the oft-injured David Bakhtiari, who is currently on IR and is set to cost nearly $40.5 million against the salary cap next season.