Getty General manager of the Green Bay Packers Brian Gutekunst speaks to reporters during the NFL Draft Combine in March 2023.
The Green Bay Packers ponied up for a handful of defensive stars last offseason and another gigantic pay day is coming due soon.
Outside linebacker Rashan Gary is the best pass rusher on the Packers roster. The former No. 12 overall selection in the 2019 NFL Draft is playing on the fifth and final year of his rookie contract, a bargain at just shy of $10.9 million after Green Bay exercised its team option on Gary for 2023.
However, that bargain ends after next season when Gary hits unrestricted free agency. That was a centerpiece of an argument from The Athletic’s David DeChant on Wednesday, April 5, when he named Gary the 10th best prospective free agent of the 2024 class and asserted that the edge defender will sooner than later sign an extension worth well above $20 million per season.
Since the start of 2021, [Gary has] been a terrifying pass rusher, posting 15 1/2 sacks, 40 QB hits and an 18.9 percent pressure rate — second-best among edge rushers (Micah Parsons, 20.8) in that span — in 25 games.
That trajectory puts him in position for a contract worth well north of $20 million annually. We’ll see if the Packers have any hesitation paying Gary, who doesn’t turn 26 until December, after his injury. If they let him play out the final year of his contract, he would be a likely franchise-tag candidate.
Rashan Gary’s ACL Injury Cut His 2022 Packers Season Short
GettyEdge defender Rashan Gary of the Green Bay Packers plays during a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium on October 10, 2021 in Cincinnati, Ohio.
The only legitimate concern on Gary’s resumé is the ACL injury he sustained in Week 9 of last season against the Detroit Lions.
Prior to the injury Gary produced six sacks and 17 quarterback pressures, per Pro Football Reference. Extrapolated out over a full season those numbers would have likely earned the edge defender the first Pro Bowl nod of his career. Gary was still second on the team in sacks, trailing only fellow outside linebacker Preston Smith who finished the year with 8.5 sacks and 27 quarterback pressures.
Smith, who will play most of next season at the age of 31, signed a four-year extension worth $52 million last offseason to remain in Green Bay. Gary is five years younger than Smith and has better per game statistics since becoming a full-time starter two years ago, which offers further credence to DeChant’s assertion that a monstrous new deal is heading the pass rusher’s way.
That the Packers finished tied for 27th with just 34 sacks all of last season, per StatMuse, increases Gary’s worth at a premium position even more. As of April 7, Spotrac projected Gary’s annual value at $26 million over the life of a four-year contract.
Packers May Look For Help on Edge in 2023 NFL Draft
GettyOLB Preston Smith of the Green Bay Packers celebrates with OLB Rashan Gary after a sack during the NFC Divisional Playoff Game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lambeau Field on January 22, 2022 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
The Packers are also likely to look to the defensive line early in the 2023 NFL Draft, the first round of which is scheduled on Thursday, April 27.
While the popular position for months was that Green Bay would look to a tight end or wide receiver with the No. 15 overall selection, draft experts have begun to shift their opinions toward the D-line with a specific focus on augmenting what was an ailing pass rush in 2022.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. projected in his latest mock that the Packers will pursue defensive lineman Lukas Van Ness out of the University of Iowa.
“A sophomore leap from [Devonte] Wyatt and Rashan Gary’s return from a torn ACL in his right knee will be a boost, but a versatile player such as Van Ness would be a great addition,” Kiper wrote. “At 6-foot-5, 272 pounds, Van Ness has the flexibility to play tackle and end. He had 13.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks last season. Again, there’s a lot up in the air about the Packers, but teams always covet edge rushers.”
Todd McShay of ESPN, Kiper’s draft counterpart at the network, also changed his tune from tight end to pass rusher for the Packers top pick in his most recent mock, though his projection is defensive end Myles Murphy out of Clemson.
“There should … be plenty of pass-catching options on Day 2, and Murphy would be a problem for opponents off the edge of the defense,” McShay wrote. “Murphy can drive back blockers, use his great bend to turn the corner and then close on the quarterback with burst. He put together 14 sacks and 23 tackles for loss over the past two seasons.”