Getty Whether interim head coach Jeff Saturday returns or not, one mock draft predicts a major draft move from the Indianapolis Colts.
Before doing anything else, the Indianapolis Colts must finalize who will be general manager next season. The Colts will also conduct interviews, which Jeff Saturday will presumably be part of, to fill their head coaching vacancy.
But then after that, the Colts must consider drastic moves to quickly rejuvenate the franchise. Nothing would do that more than a blockbuster trade involving high-profile draft picks.
A new mock draft from NFL writer Michael Renner of Pro Football Focus predicted just that to happen. Renner projected the Colts to trade up to the No. 1 selection in the 2023 NFL Draft to draft Alabama quarterback Bryce Young.
“The Colts make too much sense to be the team willing to offer a sweetheart deal to the Bears because a) it would still allow the Bears to be in striking distance for one of the two blue-chip defensive line prospects in the class, and b) the Colts are desperate for a franchise quarterback after years of one-season rentals at the position,” wrote Renner.
Thanks to a 1-7 finish to the season, the Colts hold the No. 4 selection in the 2023 draft. A move up to the first pick is possible, but it would be costly and a bit out of character for current Colts general manager Chris Ballard.
What It Could Cost Colts to Trade Up to No. 1
As one would expect, acquiring the top pick in the draft is not cheap. That’s true even with the No. 4 selection.
Deputy sports editor Nat Newell of The Indianapolis Star researched into recent draft trades for the No. 1 pick and speculated what it might cost the Colts to jump from No. 4 to 1 this year. The asking price for such a move would begin with an additional first and second-round choice.
“The No. 1 pick is worth 3,000 points,” Newell wrote. “The fourth pick is worth 1,800, which means the Colts would be giving up AT LEAST an additional second-rounder (540) and its 2024 first-rounder (1,158 without the discount, 416 with it).
“The Colts’ 2024 second-rounder (207) would certainly be in play, too.”
Newell agreed with Renner that the best chance for Indianapolis to move up the draft board would be to work a deal with the Chicago Bears, who own the No. 1 choice. That would move the Colts ahead of a division rival, the Houston Texans, who are also likely interested in drafting a signal caller.
There’s also another benefit for the Colts making a trade with the Bears.
“One possible advantage for the Colts is that former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is coaching the Bears and might take players instead of additional draft capital as Seattle did in the Russell Wilson trade,” wrote Newell.
If the Bears are interested in players, perhaps defenders Eberflus used to coach in Indianapolis, then the Colts could perhaps acquire the No. 1 pick without giving up more than their No. 4 selection, second-round choice and 2024 first-round pick.
But the possibility for a bidding war exists too. Multiple teams could be interested in trading up for the top choice to have the opportunity to draft Young. That would only drive up the price for Indianapolis.
Will Ballard Buck Trend for Chance to Draft Young?
A major move to select a quarterback makes all the sense in the world for the Colts.
Indianapolis has started six different signal callers in Week 1 over the last six years. During the past two years, the Colts tried to fix quarterback with trades for veterans Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan.
Those moves failed spectacularly.
The Colts could sit at No. 4 and draft the best available quarterback. Renner projected Young and Kentucky quarterback Will Levis to go first and second overall, respectively, but predicted Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud to remain on the board until seventh overall.
In his hypothetical situation, Indianapolis could just sit at No. 4 and draft Stoud. That way, the Colts have their other draft selections to build around their young signal caller.
If Ballard remains Colts general manager that’s probably what he would be more comfortable doing.
In November, ESPN’s Stephen Holder spoke publicly about Ballard’s lack of desire to take a major risk to find a signal caller in the draft.
“He wants the sure thing at quarterback,” Holder said while appearing on Kevin & Query on 107.5 The Fan on November 30. “Here’s the problem — there isn’t one. Unless you’re picking like first in the draft, there really isn’t one.
“That’s part of the problem, and that is one of the difficulties that Chris Ballard is going to have to get past if he’s making the quarterback decision for this team next year.”
Would Ballard be willing to make a blockbuster trade to lower that risk and take the consensus top quarterback in the 2023 class?
This is where the Indianapolis scouting department will be key. If the Colts organization is convinced Young is “the guy,” then there isn’t too expensive a price to pay for the chance to draft him.
But if Indianapolis “falls in love” with Young and a couple of the other quarterbacks (Stroud and Levis) in the class, then sitting at No. 4 would make more sense.
Either way, the offseason is a day old, and the Colts are already getting labeled as a team that could pull off a move that shakes up the entire 2023 draft.