Getty The Cubs and Cody Bellinger have been playing a game of chicken in free agency. ESPN's Jeff Passan shares thoughts on how it can end.
Outfielder Cody Bellinger left a void in the Chicago Cubs‘ lineup upon becoming a free agent in November. Both sides have appeared destined to reunite at some point, but it hasn’t yet come to fruition.
Why hasn’t it happened? Is Bellinger back to the Windy City still the most likely outcome? If so, how can an agreement eventually come together?
ESPN’s Jeff Passan made an appearance on ESPN 1000 with Waddle & Silvy on February 8. He spoke about Bellinger and the Cubs, and he seems to think the Toronto Blue Jays might make something happen. Passan also discussed other prominent free agents represented by agent Scott Boras (Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery).
“All this being said, by the way, I do think the Cubs will sign one of the four Boras guys,” Passan said. “I think with Bellinger, they don’t want to go seven or eight years. They don’t want to go $200-plus million. If the price comes down on that, if they could do a shorter-term deal, if they could do something with opt-outs, then yeah, maybe it becomes more attractive to them. But, I don’t think the desperation is necessarily there the same way it is with the Blue Jays.”
Passan doesn’t make it sound like Bellinger returning to the Cubs is out of the question. But that’s been the industry expectation, and it doesn’t necessarily sound like that anymore. With how firm Chicago’s front office has been in contract negotiations, something needs to give for a reunion to happen.
Why Are the Cubs Holding Their Ground Like This?
On January 20, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand shared a report as to why the Cubs and Bellinger hadn’t yet agreed to a contract. Boras and Co. have been in search of a $200-plus million guarantee and Chicago hasn’t been comfortable going to that level.
There haven’t been many other teams aggressively pursuing Bellinger this winter. So, the Cubs have had the luxury of standing firm without worrying too much about another organization swooping in to sign him.
Chicago is also able to not budge from its current stance because of top outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong. He’s registered just 19 big-league plate appearances and has yet to record a hit. However, Crow-Armstrong is viewed as the future in center field for the Cubs. He entered 2023 as a consensus top-30 prospect in baseball. In 500 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .283/.365/.511 with 20 home runs, 82 RBI, 98 runs scored and 37 steals.
The National League Central Is up for Grabs in 2024
If Bellinger doesn’t re-sign with the Cubs, it would make sense for Chicago to try and sign at least one of Chapman, Snell or Montgomery. Mostly because the NL Central division appears to be up for grabs heading into 2024.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have the St. Louis Cardinals going from worst to first, but with only 85 wins. The Cubs are right behind them, too. Here are the projected standings:
- Cardinals: 85.2-76.8
- Cubs: 80.4-81.6
- Milwaukee Brewers: 79.0-83.0
- Cincinnati Reds: 78.4-83.6
- Pittsburgh Pirates: 72.6-89.4
Whether it’s Bellinger or one of the other top remaining free agents represented by Boras, the Cubs’ perceived postseason chances will likely spike with another major acquisition. PECOTA pegs Chicago’s current chances of making the playoffs at 31.9%.