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Other than his team’s collision course with the playoffs, nothing about Justin Verlander’s 2024 season looks the way it should.
The 41-year-old future Hall of Famer has made four starts for the Houston Astros since coming off the injured list on August 21. In that time, he has lasted 17.2 total innings and has a 9.68 ERA. Opponents are hitting .346 off him with a .928 OPS.
Verlander unloaded after another lackluster start on Sunday, September 8 — a 12-6 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks in which he gave up 8 runs in three innings.
“I mean, [expletive], the damage has been done, whatever,” he said after the game, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “I’m good.”
The Astros are still in a solid spot overall, up 4.5 games on the Seattle Mariners as of Monday morning. The best record in the American League is probably out of reach, but a division crown is all but certain.
The team has the luxury of letting Verlander figure his stuff out before October.
“I felt good physically,” Verlander said, “but obviously the results were atrocious.”
Justin Verlander Is Searching for His Command
Verlander’s velocity isn’t the problem. His fastball has lost a tick since last year, but it has not changed meaningfully from what it was in his 10 starts in April, May and June.
The problem is that Verlander is struggling to locate his pitches. He walked one on Sunday, but he walked four in 4.2 innings in his previous start. Verlander’s strike rate over his last four starts is only 61%, compared with his career rate of 68% and pre-IL performance of 66%.
Verlander said after the game Sunday that his control was a major problem.
“I found myself behind a lot because I wasn’t able to land [my pitches], and they did some damage on some fastballs because of that,” he said. “I thought the fastball was better today overall. The off-speed was a bit inconsistent location-wise, which got me in a little bit of trouble.”
When he has thrown strikes, his pitches have been hittable. Balls jumped off Arizona hitters’ bats. Pavin Smith hit two home runs off Verlander (and another later in the game for an 8-RBI day), and every ball Arizona hitters put in play was either medium or hard contact, per Fangraphs. One of Smith’s home runs was a grand slam — the first Verlander has allowed in over 14 years, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com.
Only 23.5% of balls in play were groundballs, compared with Verlander’s career average of 37.6%.
Will Verlander Even Make the Astros’ Postseason Roster?
It seems like a ridiculous question to ask, but it speaks to the Astros’ rotation strength that we’re even in this spot. As it stands, Houston is not likely to get a first-round bye, meaning it would play a best-of-three opening round series.
If that holds, Houston would need only three starting pitchers in the first round, though the team would likely carry a fourth for mop-up duty. Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco should all be locks. Yusei Kikuchi will probably make the roster as well.
That leaves Verlander and Spencer Arrighetti on the outside looking in, unless manager Joe Espada gets creative with his bullpen.
With three weeks left in the regular season, it’s on Verlander to earn a spot on the postseason roster, if not for the first round then the second round and beyond.
“I would not bet against someone with that pedigree and how good this guy has been for a very long time,” Espada told The Athletic. “I just know that he’s going to go back and work and try to figure some stuff out. This guy has been very good for a very long time.”
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