Getty Which MLB hitters could hit the most home runs during the 2024 season? We used FanGraphs' Steamer projections to discuss the top 10.
Now that the calendar has officially flipped to 2024, the return of MLB action is in sight. Pitchers and catchers will start reporting to spring training in the middle of February. Soon after that, Grapefruit League and Cactus League games will start, and before you know it, Opening Day will be here in March.
But while we wait for the regular season to begin, it’s time to think about which players could be among the league leaders in various categories throughout the game. According to FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, here are the players expected to be among baseball’s top-10 home run hitters during the 2024 season.
- Aaron Judge, New York Yankees: 46 home runs
- Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies: 42
- Pete Alonso, New York Mets: 41
- Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves: 40
- Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros: 39
- Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers: 39
- Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves: 38
- Juan Soto, New York Yankees: 38
- Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres: 37
- Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels: 37
A Look Back at 2023’s MLB Home Run Leaders
The projected top-10 home run hitters for 2024 have a lot of the usual suspects included. When looking back at least year’s top 10, six of them are projected to accomplish that feat again. Those players include Judge, Schwarber, Alonso, Olson, Acuña Jr. and Ohtani.
Top-10 home run hitters from 2023 who are currently projected to land outside this group in 2024 include Marcell Ozuna (40 homers in 2023), Mookie Betts (39), Adolis Garcia (39) and Luis Robert Jr. (38).
Olson led the league in 2023 with a Braves franchise record 54 homers. He was also the only one to surpass the half-century mark. Meanwhile, there were five other players who hit 40-plus dingers: Schwarber, Alonso, Ohtani, Acuña Jr. and Ozuna. There were also a total of 29 players who slugged 30 or more home runs during the regular season. That was an increase from 2022 when only 23 players reached that benchmark.
As of January 5, Steamer projects 27 different players to hit 30 or more home runs during the 2024 season.
Will There Be Another 50-Homer Season in 2024?
MLB fans have been spoiled the last two years with some eye-opening home run performances from players. While Olson hit 54 in 2023, he was preceded by Judge’s American League record-breaking 62 homers in 2022.
Major League Baseball has been around for more than 150 years. There have been just 48 different seasons of 50-plus homers. If we look at single-season performances since 2000, it’s happened 19 times, per FanGraphs. Five of those instances have taken place since 2017: Giancarlo Stanton (2017), Judge (2017 and 2022), Alonso (2019) and Olson (2023).
Could we see another 50-homer season in 2024?
Judge, Alonso and Olson are all still in their prime and each has at least one 50-homer performance under their respective belts. So, there’s a chance they can do it again. Schwarber has produced two straight seasons of at least 46 homers in Philadelphia, so he’s another threat to reach those heights.
If at least one player does get to the half-century mark in 2024, it will be the third straight season it’s happened at least once. Per MLB.com’s Sarah Langs, the last time that happened was from 2005-07 when a total of five players did it over a three-season span.
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MLB’s Top 10 Projected Home Run Hitters for the 2024 Season