Albeit mid-May with over 70% of MLB outcomes still to be decided, the July 30 trade deadline hypothetical express has begun rolling out of the depot.
The top two players likely to slap another travel sticker on their suitcases before August rolls around are Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman and New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, according to a poll of 24 team executives.
Bregman (five votes) and Alonso (three) combined for a third of the votes, with 13 other players (including two other Astros, starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander) getting one or two votes each. Both Bregman, 30, and Alonso, 29, are on expiring contracts.
Let’s look at the two players topping the exec poll and why they may or may not be on the move.
Alex Bregman
GettyAlex Bregman
Bregman’s numbers thus far (4 home runs, 19 RBIs, career-low .637 OPS through May 15) may prompt a moment of pause, but Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter has a more assured outlook on Bregman.
“Ignore those 2024 numbers,” he wrote on May 9.
“Alex Bregman has a long enough track record of star-level production that teams will be lining up for a chance to add him to the roster if the Houston Astros do decide to make him available this summer,” he wrote.
Shipping a haul for a rental you may not be able to secure beyond this season is problematic. Boras’ clients failed to crack the high triple-digit contract plateau in 2023, and Bregman could be left outside looking in as Spring Training gets underway.
Although teams would no doubt consider Bregman’s services, the water gets murky on a fat, long-term contract if last season’s uncustomary-like stalemate from owners is any indication.
Before we get the cart out in front of the horse, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand asked a pressing question in a May 14 story on trade candidates: “Will [Houston] GM Dana Brown become a seller and try to reset the roster without going through a rebuild?”
Without saying, it’s all predicated on what happens in the coming weeks before the deadline approaches. As Feinsand points out, other than Bregman, Dana Brown will be faced with several decisions that could drastically change Astro’s fortunes—for good or bad.
“Alex Bregman and Graveman are slated to become free agents after the season, while Verlander could also hit the market depending on whether he hits the 140-inning mark that would trigger a $35 million player option. Verlander owns a full no-trade clause, so while he controls his own fate, Bregman could be the biggest name moved prior to the Trade Deadline.”
Should the Stros’ decide to go into rebuild mode, they have other options that may find the trade table as well.
“Don’t count out a Ryan Pressly trade, either; the reliever is earning $14 million this season and has a $14 million mutual option ($2 million buyout) for 2025, making him a likely free agent after the season, too. Other possible trade chips include Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and Jose Urquidy, all of whom have one year of club control remaining after the 2024 season,” Fiensand wrote.
Considering the Astros’ current position (6.5 back in the Wild Card and 5.5 behind in the AL West), how this plays out is hard to gauge.
There’s still a lot of baseball between now and the end of July. Breggy has time to get on a heater and reclaim some leverage, as faltering in a contract year can raise concerns among suitors.
Bottom line: However he may be perceived, Bregman is still fairly young (30), a solid professional hitter with good batting instincts, and has several substantial postseason moments throughout the 19 series he’s appeared in. Despite being 4-years removed from his last All-Star appearance, Alex can flash a pair of World Series rings if necessary.
Is that enough to get a stout and somewhat lengthy contract? Probably not from the Astros. His expiring back-loaded deal is paying him $30.5 million in 2024, so his desired price tag/years of service may be beyond Houston’s pain threshold. How it unravels is anyone’s guess.
Pete Alonso
GettyPete Alonso
The 3-time All-Star and former Rookie of the Year seems like a more plausible choice to score a deal and remain a NY Met than Bregman with the Astros.
First off, in spite of being drubbed by the Phillies and Braves in the NL East just several weeks into the season (11 games back of Philly), New York is a mere game behind in the NL Wild Card.
Should the Mets find themselves fading out of contention, naturally the likelihood of shipping Alonso increases if the Mets receive an offer they can move on. So, what does contention look like since the playoffs were expanded?
“Since the new playoff format was introduced in 2022, a .500 record the day of the trade deadline has averaged being 3 3/4 games out of a playoff spot,” according to The Athletic’s Tim Britton.
A growing concern among analysts is a conspicuous decline in some key metrics for slugger Alonso. Britton on Pete’s measurable dip in hard-hit results.
“What’s interesting — and here I mean disconcerting — to me about Alonso is his trend in authoritative contact. When a player slumps, a lot of people jump to chasing too much, but Alonso chased less often last season than ever before, and he’s been pretty good this year staying in the zone.
But the damage in the zone hasn’t been the same.
Alonso still barrels the ball about as often as anybody, and when he does, the ball goes really far. But he’s not hitting the ball hard, in general, as often as he used to, and that’s been a multi-year trend.”
When Britton asked about how he interprets the trend, Mets’ hitting coach Barnes responded with a guarded positivity.
“I don’t know yet,” hitting coach Jeremy Barnes said over the weekend. “The biggest thing I would say is I think he just went into a funk quick without having a hot streak before that, so it’s just skewing the numbers right now. I think we’ll look at the end of the year and Pete’s going to hit the ball hard. That’s my take. … We’re paying attention to it, but I really like the track he’s on right now.”
Alonso—pulling down $20.5 million on a one-year deal—won’t sniff career numbers in 2024, but he’s still more than serviceable while doing Pete Alonso-esque things. His current wRC+ of 118 isn’t slouchy in the least.
No, he won’t jack 53 homers and drive in 120—and probably won’t best 40 dingers either, but a 35/90 line is doable with just a slight uptick and good health. At 29 years of age, it’s not difficult to envision the “Polar Bear” providing acceptable production over the next few years.
What’s unclear is just how much of a perceived value Mets GM David Stearns will find in Alonso based on several factors still to unfold, such as Alonso’s next 2.5 months of production and the team’s level of contention at the deadline.
Pete’s on good terms with owner Steve Cohen and also a Met fan favorite, so a scenario where Stearns can make a new Alonso contract commitment work seems viable should the Mets choose to navigate that avenue.
Executive reporter at MLB.com, Mark Feinsand, ran a May 14 piece dissecting possible scenarios that may be a matter of course to some wheeling and dealing at the upcoming July 30 MLB trade deadline.
It’s Early, But a Diehard Can Speculate Nonetheless
Yes, it’s that time again. A gaggle of baseball franchises are off to a start that lies somewhere in the – they look sluggish and what an egregious failure range.
On the flip side, fanbases lie in the familiar – they have time left so I’m cautiously optimistic and I need more daily trade deadline scenarios while clamoring for mass firings and carnage. Man, I love this sport.
Truth be told, diehards are known to start the trade deadline chatter after executive winter proceedings have concluded and the new year arrives. In conjunction, once the season tops that quarter mark, the should-he-stay-or-should-he-go content starts to get juicy.
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MLB: Most Likely to Be Traded & Why Deadline Speculation Rocks