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The September 1 roster expansion milestone has come and gone in the 2024 Major League Baseball season and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman has some insight as to why the New York Yankees did not promote Jasson Dominguez, their top prospect who is on a tear in Triple-A.
Yankees fans were vocal about their displeasure for the decision to promote outfielder Duke Ellis instead, amid a flurry of moves that included activating Anthony Rizzo from the Injured List and lengthening their bullpen to bring their roster to 28.
“Yankees promote a pinch runner type rather than the Martian, who is untouchable in trade talks and a bona fide power threat. Hard to understand this one,” Heyman wrote via X, referring to Ellis, on Sunday, September 1.
After the Yankees lost their first game of the month, a 14-7 debacle against the St. Louis Cardinals, Heyman was able to offer a possible explanation.
“This isn’t likely about service time, as many are surmising, but rather the Yankee higherups’ continuing faith in Verdugo and Grisham,” he wrote on Monday afternoon. “The Yankees aren’t service time manipulators but do favor veterans.”
Verdugo and Grisham have both had their struggles for the Yankees this season and as the team has played at a .500 level for a couple months now, it’s understandable why fans would be frustrated. But it’s also reasonable to lean on veterans as you make a playoff push.
Assessing Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham’s Seasons
There’s no way around the reality that Verdugo is going through the worst offensive season of his career. He’s a lifetime .273 hitter who is hitting .234, with a lifetime OPS of .746, compared to .654 in 2024. However, it hasn’t all been bad. Verdugo enters the home stretch on a hot streak with 11 hits in his last 30 at bats, as of September 2.
Manager Aaron Boone has called Verdugo “unlucky” this year, according to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, and he has a point. FanGraphs pegs his expected batting average at .257 — more than 20 points higher than the actual. His expected slugging percentage is .390, nearly 30 points higher than his actual .319 mark.
On the other hand, by percentage, he’s hitting more ground balls than at any point since 2021 (48.7%) and fewer line drives than he has since 2018 (17.8%). Additionally, his hard-hit percentage is its lowest since 2020 (36%).
As for Grisham, it’s a little harder to see why the Yankees are sticking with him. Not only has he been a well-below .200 hitter all season (even with a midseason spurt), but his approach on defense has, at least once, been “a bad look,” per Boone.
His offensive numbers are typical of his career. He played 150-plus games for the San Diego Padres each of the last two seasons and failed to hit .200 in each.
Why Jasson Dominguez Remains in the Minors
The reasoning behind keeping Dominguez at Triple-A Scranton goes beyond Verdugo and Grisham. There are a lot of moving pieces for the Yankees’ phenom specifically.
For a top prospect like Dominguez, it’s probably more important that he plays every day, rather than sit on the bench and never be able to find a groove in the Yankees’ crowded outfield.
“When he comes up here, we’re going to want to play him every day, so he’ll continue to remain in the conversation,” Boone said, per Hoch.
His season-long numbers are good for a .307 average in 52 games with an .857 OPS, but one evaluator told The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty that his arm strength and accuracy had not yet recovered from the Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss most of the season. The evaluator added that Dominguez has been prone to errors.
Then there’s the service time situation. Dominguez can retain his rookie status into next season if he enters 2025 with fewer than 130 career at bats. He’s at 35 now. If he is still a rookie next season and wins the 2025 Rookie of the Year award, the Yankees would be awarded an extra first-round draft pick in 2026.
The Yankees can still bring Dominguez up and play him every day starting relatively soon and not risk him picking up 95 more at bats.
“He will remain in the conversation moving forward,” Boone added.
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