Yankees Predicted to Lose All-Star to $560 Million Mets Contract

Getty Yankees free-agent-to-be Juan Soto (right)

Can’t the Yankees just have nice things, for one October, at least? It’s a fair question given that the team enters the American League playoffs as the favorite to reach its first World Series since 2009. But the Yankees gambled in the offseason on a major trade for outfielder Juan Soto, and this October has not only become about the games being played on the field, it’s become about the games that will be played this winter.

That’s because Soto is expected to be one of the biggest free-agent targets in MLB history once this season wraps up—the biggest pure position player contract in league history, no doubt, which excludes last year’s Dodgers deal for pitcher/hitter Shohei Ohtani.

Soto is coming off a year in which he helped Aaron Judge carry a Yankees offense that would have collapsed completely without him. He hit .288 with a .415 on-base percentage and a .569 slugging mark. Yankees Stadium suited him well, as he knocks 41 home runs, though he hit well on the road, too, as 21 of those homers came away from the Stadium.

The problem for the Yankees is that, at age 25, Soto is likely to get some blank-check offers. And the most likely team to make such an offer is just across the river in Queens, where Bleacher Report predicts the Mets will successfully lure Soto this offseason.

Juan Soto Expected to Break the Bank — Somewhere

Writing in an article titled, “MLB Free Agents 2024: Latest Rumors, Predictions on Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, More,” B/R’s Erik Breaston says the Mets’ desperation when it comes to prying Soto out of the Bronx will be too much for the star and agent Scott Boras to resist, as he is projected to get, conservatively, $516 million over 14 years, according to Spotrac’s model.

Tim Britton of The Athletic has that number at $560 million.

Here’s how Breaston lays it out:

“MLB insider Buster Olney told Pinstripe Nation that the Mets will go ‘toe-to-toe’ with the Bronx Bombers in a bidding war for a free agent, having admitted to him that Soto is their guy (10:36 mark). He also believes the Yankees will be outbid. How much money vs. the ‘Yankees experience’ weighs into Soto’s decision will ultimately determine if he is back with the team. …

“While Soto has had a great time with the Yankees and has had the best season of his career, he has turned down a huge contract extension from Washington in the past in pursuit of even more money. If he thinks he can get it from the Mets, or any other team, he will leave the Yankees in the rear-view mirror.”

Yankees Watching Traded Prospects Flourish

The postseason has not begun for the Yankees, but already, the way things have unfolded should make the team nervous. The Mets arriving in the playoffs in dramatic fashion, after a double-header split with the Braves on Monday, makes them more appealing to Soto than if they’d fizzled out down the stretch.

And if the Yankees are paying attention to what’s happened in San Diego, where the Padres’ second-half surge has them situated as a dark horse in the National League, they’ve surely noticed that two players they sent to the Padres to acquire Soto last winter spurred a victory in the team’s wild-card round Game 1 win.

Starter Michael King, the prize prospect in the deal, went seven scoreless innings in the Padres’ 4-0 win. And catcher Kyle Higashioka homered.

Not only could the Yankees lost Soto, then, but they could do so while watching the players they gave up for Soto lead a National League pennant push. But hey, if the Yankees go out and play up to their potential in the A.L. postseason, all that can be forgotten.