Yankees Predicted to Push Rotation’s Leader Out When Gerrit Cole Returns

Few would have expected the New York Yankees rotation to thrive in the absence of franchise ace Gerrit Cole, who has yet to pitch this season after hitting the injured list following elbow issues that arose during Spring Training.

But that’s just what the healthy members of the pitching staff have done, as the team ranks second in MLB for ERA, fourth for opposing batting average and second for wins. And no Yankees starter has been better in Cole’s absence than Luis Gil, a 25-year-old righty who won out the final spot in the rotation after a strong preseason.

In eight starts so far, Gil has maintained a 2.51 ERA that is the best among all Yankees starters, and he’s tied for the most wins and most total innings. But as Cole continues to progress toward a return, Randy Miller of NJ.com projects Gil will be relegated to a reliever role.

“If Cole returns with the five starters that the Yankees have been using healthy, then someone will lose his spot,” Miller noted. “Prediction: (Nestor) Cortes keeps his rotation spot and Gil moves into a bullpen role and ends up with around 100 innings tops.”

Luis Gil Has Made the New York Yankees’ Choice Upon Gerrit Cole’s Return a Difficult One

Before the season got underway, relegating Gil would not have been a very difficult choice. Prior to 2024, he had made just seven career big-league starts, with a 9.00 ERA in just four innings total in 2022. But his stellar campaign so far this season will likely make the looming decision a tougher one for the Yankees.

“Gil is no longer the obvious choice just because he’s been Cole’s fill in, he’s the least experienced, he can be wild and he can be optioned,” Miller added. “Gil throws the hardest and he might have the best stuff of the Yankees’ current five-man rotation. He’s also sporting a 2.58 ERA after his latest masterpiece, six shutout innings … over the Rays.”

But there is one remaining factor that could seal Gil’s fate in the coming weeks: his durability.

“Gil is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery after pitching four innings last year and not topping 50 since 2019 when he pitched a career-high 96,” Miller noted. “Averaging five innings for 30 starts adds up to 150. There’s no way the Yankees let Gil do that.”

Regardless of a Return for Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil Is Likely to Be Relegated

Of course, some things could change between now and Cole’s potential return. The franchise ace has progressed to the point of throwing long tosses and manager Aaron Boone said that the plan is to have him “ramp up” his baseball activities, as Scott Butherus reported for MLB.com. But an exact timetable for his return has not been determined.

Another member of the rotation might go down in the meantime. Or the Yankees might make other personnel moves that change the calculus. But it seems that, despite his outstanding start, the clock is ticking for Gil.

“At some point, the Yankees will likely have to pull the plug on Gil as a starting pitcher, no matter how much it hurts,” Brendan Kuty wrote for The Athletic. “His high for total innings came in 2021 when he pitched 79 ⅓ in the minors and 29 ⅓ for the Yankees. He pitched just four innings last year due to Tommy John surgery.”