Getty Fernando Tatís Jr.
Last offseason, the San Diego Padres were stealing headlines as the team to watch. With the long-awaited return of Fernando Tatís Jr., recent trade-deadline acquisition of Juan Soto, and mega-contract signing of Xander Bogaerts seemingly set to lead them to victory, it appeared all predictions and power rankings had the Padres listed as a top team to dominate the 2023 season.
Alas, it didn’t work out that way, and just a year later, this winter is set to stay a very quiet one in San Diego, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
“They don’t offer anyone more than $5 million a year the rest of the winter, trying to spread out the remaining $20 million in their budget to fill about six different positions,” Nightengale wrote in a January 7 column. “Their World Series aspirations have melted into the goal of merely qualifying as a wild-card contender.”
If fans took a quick look at the team’s financial position after their years of wild spending, they wouldn’t find Nightengale’s prediction too shocking, especially considering how poor the return on their investment has been.
The Cost of Doing Business
The Padres finished the 2023 season third in the NL West with a disappointing record of 82-80, 18 games back from their division rival, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite brief glimpses of potential, San Diego’s almost impressive level of inconsistency stopped them from spending much time above .500 all season, and their seeming inability to win in extra innings nearly made history — they tied the 1969 Montreal Expos for the longest extra-innings losing streak to start a season at 12 games.
Still, the bill on their exorbitant spending came due, and with seven players making over eight figures in 2023, it wasn’t going to be small.
The Padres were charged $39.7 million in luxury tax for their 2023 payroll, which came to a team-record-setting total of $255 million. Because it was the third consecutive year they owed luxury tax, San Diego was charged at a rate of 50% on the first $20 million above the $233 million threshold, 62% on the next $20 million, and 95% on the amount from $273 million to $293 million.
In September 2023, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that the Padres would cut their payroll and “go into 2024 with player commitments of around $200 million.”
Are the Padres’ Big Spending Days Over?
Over the last few years, the Padres have developed a reputation for pulling out all the stops to land top players, but it’s yet to pay off for them how they’d like.
In fact, both of San Diego’s mega-deals from last offseason — Manny Machado’s 11-year, $350 million extension and Bogaerts’ 11-year, $280 million contract — were recently listed on “MLB’s 10 Biggest Nightmare Contracts by 2026” by Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller. Jake Cronenworth’s seven-year, $80 million extension and Tatís Jr.’s 14-year, $340 million deal were named as honorable mentions.
Even as recently as the 2023 trade deadline, the Padres stood firm in their position as buyers, refusing to give up hope of playoff contention despite a record that couldn’t stay above .500 and a number of their star players having their worst season in years. Blake Snell and Josh Hader, both of whom would’ve been hot trade chips at the deadline, entered free agency at the end of the season, leaving San Diego with nothing to show for holding onto them past August.
Comparing the aggressive moves of last offseason to this one, it’s clear the Padres are taking a much more conservative approach to payroll and playoff contention this year, even though the team has some glaring holes in their roster. Six spots on the 40-man roster are open, and the Padres desperately need pitching help both in the starting rotation and bullpen, plus at least one high-caliber outfielder. There’s a noticeable lack of left-handers, so acquiring lefties (both pitchers and hitters) is likely to be a top priority.
So with the budgetary restrictions the Padres now find themselves confined by, can San Diego make a comeback in 2024? It’s going to be hard.
The Padres are one of just five MLB teams that have never won a World Series title, and general manager A.J. Preller has made it clear he wants to change that. So far, throwing money at payroll hasn’t been the answer, but there’s still time before the season starts, and maybe a big trade is coming San Diego’s way.
But if Nightengale is correct, it’s set to stay a quiet offseason in San Diego, and yet another example of a team’s exorbitant payroll spending not adding up to playoff success.