Getty Blake Snell
At the start of the winter, free agent Blake Snell signing a mega-deal with a new team before spring training seemed like a certainty. Now, with Opening Day just around the corner on March 28, Snell’s list of interested suitors has dwindled, but one team could be about to strike — the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants have been linked to Snell all offseason, with the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reporting on the team’s interest as far back as December 21. At the time, Snell’s exorbitant nine-year, $270 million asking price, per Bill Maddon of the New York Daily News, forced the Giants to look at other free agent options, but with the 31-year-old now open to adjusting his demands, San Francisco looks to be conveniently making space on the payroll.
In a relatively expected move after signing third baseman Matt Chapman earlier this month, the Giants released third baseman J.D. Davis on March 11. This came just a month after Davis won his arbitration hearing against the team to secure a 2024 salary of $6.9 million, and since his contract was imposed by an arbitrator and not agreed to by the Giants, the team was only required to pay Davis $1.1 million of his contract.
Snell’s Projected Contract Value
Going into the offseason, MLB Trade Rumors predicted Snell would land a seven-year, $200 million deal out of free agency, and on January 13, Bill Maddon of the New York Daily News reported that the two-time Cy Young winner had set his asking price at nine years and $270 million. Despite the highest of hopes, it doesn’t appear Snell has received an offer even close to that value.
On February 28, NY Post’s Jon Heyman reported that Snell is now open to discussing a short-term, high-AAV deal with opt-outs after each season, similar to the one Cody Bellinger landed with the Chicago Cubs before 2023. While this would give Snell another shot to get a better deal in free agency next offseason, it may not be particularly appealing to teams due to the rules regarding draft-pick compensation.
At the end of the 2023 season, Snell received and rejected a qualifying offer from the San Diego Padres. Because a player can only receive one qualifying offer under MLB rules, if Snell opts out of a new deal after one year, the team that signed him would lose a draft pick but couldn’t gain one. The team may also have to surrender money from their international signing bonus pool.
Still, Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer predicted February 28 that Snell will end up on a three-year, $100 million deal with opt-outs after 2024 and 2025.
Snell Would Solidify the Giants’ Shaky Starting Rotation
This winter, the Giants made two acquisitions for their starting rotation, both of which were very strong. On January 5, the team added All-Star Robbie Ray in a trade with the Seattle Mariners, and two weeks later, they signed Jordan Hicks to a four-year, $44 million deal. Still, the Giants’ starting rotation has a fair bit of instability.
Having had Tommy John surgery in May 2023, Ray won’t return to the mound until the middle of the 2024 season. Starter Alex Cobb will also start on the IL, unlikely to make his season debut before May.
That means that the Giants’ projected starting rotation stands as follows:
- Logan Webb (RHP)
- Kyle Harrison (LHP)
- Jordan Hicks (RHP)
- Keaton Winn (RHP)
- Mason Black (RHP)
Looking at the above list, it isn’t difficult to see why the team would be looking to stablize their rotation with an ace like Snell.
Black is a non-roster invitee at the Giants’ spring training camp and is yet to debut in the majors. Winn made his MLB debut in June 2023, appearing in just nine games (five starts) for the Giants last season. Harrison also debuted last season, making seven starts, and according to NBC Sports’ Alex Pavlovic, he’s likely to get the nod to be the Giants’ No. 2 starter.
Even Hicks, who went into the offseason as one of MLB’s top free agent relief pitchers, will be going into 2024 as a relatively untested starter. Having primarily worked out of the bullpen, the 27-year-old has only made eight starts since debuting in the majors in 2018, all of which were in 2022.
Other than Webb, the Giants have no proven major-league starters in their rotation until Ray and Cobb return from the IL. While Harrison, Hicks, Winn, and Black are all brimming with potential — as mentioned above, Hicks went into the offseason as one of the top relievers available in free agency — the Giants have very little room for growing pains when they’re in the same division as the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks.
In 2023, Snell went 14-9 with a 2.25 ERA and career-high 234 strikeouts in 180 innings with the Padres. His ERA and hits-per-nine-innings (5.8) were the best in the majors, winning him the second Cy Young Award of his career.
If the Giants are taking their contention window seriously, Snell could be the difference between a development year with young starters and a playoff berth with a cohesive rotation. Despite the draft-pick cost, Snell could be a game-changer this season, and with very limited other options to tie together their pitching, he may be the Giants’ last hope for contention in 2024.