Getty Nathan Eovaldi
Even with a mediocre run-up to the MLB All-Star break, the St. Louis Cardinals are in position to buy at the July 30 trade deadline.
St. Louis is 50-46, a game up in the National League Wild Card race, and 4.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. But they need starting pitching, and MLB.com’s John Denton says they may target Nathan Eovaldi and Zach Eflin.
“For the first time in decades, the Cardinals were sellers at the Trade Deadline last season as they dealt away five pitchers for a bevy of prospects,” he wrote in a story published July 20. “Now, the Cards will use those prospects and others to try to lure pitching help and maybe a difference-making right-handed bat to St. Louis. Two pitchers the Cards will likely target, per a source: Rangers’ right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and Rays’ righty Zach Eflin.”
The Cardinals’ rotation isn’t dreadful, but it is not the rotation of a World Series team. They rank 21st in starter ERA (4.44) and are middle-of-the-pack in FIP (4.07) and strikeouts per nine innings (8.20). But Sonny Gray is the only starter with an ERA of under 4.10 and a WHIP under 1.200.
Why a Nathon Eovaldi Trade Makes Sense for the Cardinals
Nathan Eovaldi is an attractive Cardinals trade target if they think they can win a World Series this year. At 34 years old, Eovaldi would only add to the overwhelming age of St. Louis’ rotation, but he’s also a lights-out playoff pitcher.
Eovaldi won his first World Series ring with the Texas Rangers last season, and through his career with the Red Sox and Rangers, has a career 3.05 postseason ERA across 17 starts. He’s also averaging 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in the postseason compared to his career 7.7 regular season average.
Assuming he stays healthy, Eovaldi could also be a part of the Cardinals’ rotation next year. He has a $20 million player option that will automatically vest if he reaches 300 combined innings across 2023 and 2024. He’s at 243 right now.
Despite his age, Eovaldi still averages 95.5 mph on his fastball — a slight dip from the prime of his career, but opponents are still only hitting .183 against it in 2024. They don’t fare much better against his slider, either (.202).
Why a Zach Eflin Trade Makes Sense for the Cardinals
Zach Eflin’s numbers aren’t quite as solid as Eovaldi’s (4.14 ERA, 94 ERA+). Some of that is tainted by his most recent outing, a 5-inning disaster against the Yankees in which he gave up four earned runs and walked four.
Eflin is also just a season removed from an American League-best 16 wins and a 3.50 ERA in the American League East. With a similar financial burden to Eovaldi (one more year on his deal, due $18 million in 2025), he would come at a cheaper price.
Compared to Eovaldi, Eflin does not have the same postseason pedigree. He has appeared in 11 playoff games but started only one of them and has a 5.17 ERA over 15.2 postseason innings.
The Rays pitcher would also become the “baby” of the Cardinals’ rotation at 30 years old. Looking ahead, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn both have club options next year, but everyone else is under contract. There’s no such thing as too much pitching, however, and even if they pick up both options and don’t move anyone else, Eflin would slot in somewhere next season, as long as he earns it in 2024.