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The NASCAR Cup Series drivers head to Dover Motor Speedway on May 1 (3 p.m. ET, FS1). There are several past winners with favorable odds to return to Victory Lane, but Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson is a strong favorite.
OddsChecker provided the insight ahead of the tripleheader weekend at Dover that also features the ARCA Menards Series and Xfinity Series. Larson sits at +450 heading toward the Cup Series, giving him an implied chance of 18.2% to win. His three teammates are next in line with William Byron and Chase Elliott at +900 and Alex Bowman at +1,000.
Larson nearly won the race at Dover during the 2021 season. He put on a dominant performance early by leading 263 of the scheduled 400 laps and winning both Stage 1 and 2. However, Bowman took the lead during the final pit stop under caution and held off the field on two restarts.
Bowman led the final 97 laps and put the No. 48 back in Victory Lane for the first time since the 2017 season when Jimmie Johnson won his 11th race at the track. Larson finished second while Elliott and Byron rounded out the top four spots for a Hendrick Motorsports sweep.
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Larson Has 1 Career Win at Dover
There are three Cup Series drivers that will head to Dover in a three-way tie for the most wins (three) among active drivers. Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch make up this group while Larson is behind them with only one trip to Victory Lane. Though he has a history of consistency at the Monster Mile.
Larson has only made 13 starts at Dover, but he has run near the front of the pack in 76.9% of his starts. He has 10 top-10 finishes, seven top-fives, and the lone win from the 2019 season. More importantly, Larson has completed every single race and 99.9% of the scheduled laps.
The win from the 2019 season was historic for Chip Ganassi Racing. Larson, who drove the No. 42 Chevrolet Camaro at the time, led 154 laps and built up a nearly 1.5-second lead over Truex in the closing laps. He crossed the finish line first and took CGR to the Round of Eight for the first time in team history before ultimately ending the year sixth in the championship standings.
A 2-Time Winner in 2022 Has Less Favorable Odds
The quartet from HMS will have the best odds to win entering the Dover race weekend, and understandably so considering that three have won at the one-mile track while Byron has two top-five finishes in his past two starts. Byron was also the first driver to win multiple races during the 2022 season.
Ross Chastain, the driver who captured the Geico 500 and joined Byron on the list of multi-time winners, has less favorable odds to win. He sits at +1,200 entering the weekend, giving him an implied 7.7% chance to win at Dover despite having six top-five finishes and two wins in 2022.
Chastain has not contended for wins at Dover during his Cup Series career. He has made seven starts without a top-10 finish. Though six of his wins were with Premium Motorsports. His seventh, a career-best 15th-place finish, was with Chip Ganassi Racing in 2021.
Chastain will make his eighth start at Dover fresh off his second career Cup Series win. He will have no shortage of confidence based on his past performances, but he will have to avoid incidents at a track known for its unique sensation of speed.
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