NBA Mock Draft 2021: Updated Lottery Order & Pick Predictions

My first introduction to Jalen Green was standing in line to get into a crowded South Carolina gym at the 2019 Peach Jam tournament. Just a junior at the time, Green was already showing why some believe the guard could be the biggest star to come out of the 2021 NBA Draft.

There is only one smell for a high school gym which is a mixture of sweat, humidity and stale concession food. Fans were climbing up folded bleacher stands to get a glimpse of Green who was starring on Russell Westbrook’s AAU squad. With springs for legs, Green did not disappoint with plenty of highlights fit for his own Overtime highlight video. As I fill out my first mock draft on lottery night, it is hard for me to shake this image.

Years later, Cade Cunningham is the consensus No. 1 pick and for good reason. Cunningham is the latest top prospect to emerge out of the basketball factory known as Montverde Academy. This was followed by a one-year stint at Oklahoma State where Cunningham demonstrated everything NBA execs are looking for in a top pick. Cunningham is a two-way playmaker, good three-point shooter and elite at creating for his teammates. No team will take Green ahead of Cunningham, but this might be a year where landing the No. 2 or No. 3 picks feels like more than just a consolation prize.

The Top-5 Players Appear Locked in

All indications are the top-five players have been locked in well before the lottery order was revealed. What is worth watching is what order these consensus top-five players will be selected. How teams evaluate USC big man Evan Mobley will be interesting to see given the emphasis on guards and wings over centers in the current NBA. Despite the decreasing value of centers, Mobley is the early favorite to be the No. 2 pick behind Cunningham, but Green is sure to garner some pre-draft buzz to challenge for the position.

Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Kuminga are expected to round out the top five. Suggs was one of the stars of March Madness as Gonzaga fell just short of a perfect season. The point guard would be the No. 1 pick in most years, but does not have some of the athletic measurables as the current top-three players. ESPN’s Mike Schmitz reported that there is historic buzz around the top five players in the upcoming draft.

“That top five is potentially as stout as any of the other drafts [since 2000],” an NBA executive told ESPN. “There are years where the No. 1 pick would never be the No. 1 pick ever again. Some drafts lack that No. 1 pick. This one’s legit. I’m a big fan. There’s legit star power [in the top 5].”

There Are 2 G-League Players Projected to be Selected in the Top 5

This is also a significant draft given two of the top five picks are slated to be from the G-League Ignite team. The NBA is hoping Green and Kuminga will be the first of many lottery picks as part of the league’s new alternative to college basketball. Instead of playing at Duke or Kentucky, the two stars opted to play professional basketball in the G-League with NBA-level coaching and development. Former NBA player and coach Brian Shaw led the team and explained why the model has a chance for success.

“And so, what better way to be able to impact some very, very talented high-level young players that are going to be the next wave of NBA players and stars than to be able to catch them right now at this stage and be able to help mold and teach them not only just NBA terminology, but all the nuances and ins and outs of how to be a pro on and off the court?” Shaw explained to The Undefeated’s Marc Spears. “So that the next coach that gets them once they get to that level, will look at them and say, ‘This is the most prepared young man that I’ve had at this age or this stage because they’re getting a head start in terms of what it takes to be a pro.’”

Here is a look at our updated mock draft with the final lottery order.