Lakers Didn’t Miss Out on Klay Thompson; They Dodged a Bullet

The Los Angeles Lakers, and LeBron James specifically, wanted former Golden State Warrior Klay Thompson, but they won’t get him. Ultimately, it’s been reported by Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN that Thompson has agreed to a 3-year, $50 million deal to join the Dallas Mavericks, in a sign-and-trade that has yet to be completed.

Missing out on Thompson — a 4-time NBA Champion — might sting a bit for Lakers fans, but it’s nostalgia taking over for what a clear mind would see as a player with major red flags pointing towards his rapidly declining physical abilities.

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Game 6 Klay Thompson Is Gone

We haven’t forgotten what kind of a killer Thompson could be on the court. There’s a reason he earned his “Game 6 Klay” moniker, scoring 41 against the Oklahoma City Thunder in May 2016, 35 against the Houston Rockets in May 2018 and 30 against the Toronto Raptors in June 2019, the latter changing his career forever.

Sadly, Thompson’s 30 in Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals was when he tore his ACL, forcing him to miss the entirety of the 2019-20 season. After rehabbing and getting back on the court, Thompson would then tear his Achilles’ tendon in a pickup game, missing all of the 2020-21 season.

Thompson has played in four Game 6’s since returning from his injuries, putting up the following stats:

• 5/13/22 vs. Grizzlies: 30 points, 11-22 FG, 8-14 3P, +14
• 6/16/22 vs. Celtics: 12 points, 5-20 FG, 2-8 3P, +4
• 4/28/23 vs. Kings: 22 points, 8-20 FG, 2-9 3P, -28
• 5/12/23 vs. Lakers: 8 points, 3-19 FG, 2-12 3P, -33

The trend here is obvious on the surface, but there’s more that goes into stats like these. Let’s dig deeper.

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Numbers That Point To Alarming Degradation

Father time comes for us all, and the combination of age (Thompson will turn 35 during the 2024-25 season) and injuries has robbed Thompson of some of the most valuable abilities a shooter needs.

First off, Thompson can’t get to the rim anymore. This is not an uncommon phenomenon, as most players lose a step as they age and begin taking shots from further and further out. Before his injuries, Thompson’s average shot distance came in between 16.1 feet (2014-15) to 17.9 feet (2017-18). His last three seasons have seen him further extend from the basket, from 18.9 to 19.6 and finally 20.3 feet.

While that number can be skewed a bit, his % of 2-point field goal attempts has lowered and his % of 3-point field goal attempts has risen in each of the last three seasons. Again, it’s important to note that these are career aberrations, nothing like his first eight seasons in the league.

Two dunks in 2,284 minutes in 2023-24. Certainly, Thompson will never be confused with Vince Carter at the rim, but pre-injury, he was a deadeye shooter with a strong handle and sufficient speed. Thompson used to be able to get to the basket off pump fakes and cuts, resulting in rates ranging from 12-to-18% for field goal attempts inside three feet. Those numbers have fallen off as well, dipping from 6.1 to 5.8 and finally 5.1% last season.

If defenders don’t have to respect his ability to drive, they can push up on him much more at the 3-point line, eliminating some of the relatively open looks he used to get.

A loss of athletic ability can often be hidden on the defensive end, through smart shading and rotations, basically playing with amazing fundamentals. In Thompson’s case, he allowed opponents to shoot 2% worse than their regular season average, which isn’t Defensive Player of the Year material, but is respectable.

Of course, he’ll be flanking Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, with the former putting together one of the worst defensive performances we’ve ever seen in terms of blow-by percentage. According to Second Spectrum and aired on ESPN’s Get Up, Doncic had the three worst blow-by percentage allowed in the last 10 years in a series. That puts the pressure on teammates to recover, requiring athleticism and lateral speed, which is what tends to fade so quickly as one ages.

The Lakers didn’t miss out, they dodged. Adding Thompson would provide a player to plant on the 3-point line, a proven winner with experience in big games, but one who is far past his prime and will never be anything more than a third or fourth option again.

 

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