Getty Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra may lose a favorite in free-agent Caleb Martin
The NBA held the first round of its draft on Wednesday night, capping what has so far been a fascinating week for the Miami Heat. There was speculation that the Heat had eyes for Purdue big man and National Player of the Year Zach Edey from Purdue with the 15th pick, but the Memphis Grizzlies shocked the league by scooping up Edey at No. 9. The Heat responded by using their pick on center Kel’el Ware out of Indiana.
In the bigger picture, a major trade by the Knicks to acquire Nets star Mikal Bridges amounts to much worse news than missing out on the chance to pick Edey. That’s because, no matter the extent to which injuries can be blamed for last year’s playoff flop, the fact is that the Heat are no longer the top threat in the East to the defending-champ Celtics. That mantle clearly belongs to the Knicks.
The Heat could easily fall behind Philadelphia by the time free agency shakes out, and the likes of Milwaukee, Indiana, Cleveland and Orlando will all have arguments for having surpassed the Miami Heat.
But there’s good news. Star center Bam Adebayo and the team will soon sign a three-year, $166 million extension.
What’s of most concern now, though, is how the Heat will alter their roster in the coming weeks. Though Miami is said to be weighing potential blockbuster trades as it seeks to change direction this offseason, they do have a looming concern: They’re unlikely to be able to pay to keep Caleb Martin around, losing a key player at a power forward position that has been tough for the Heat to keep filled.
Caleb Martin to Get a Midlevel Contract?
Last year, Martin did have some struggles, but averaged 10.0 points on 43.1% shooting and 34.9% 3-point shooting. He has developed into a quality defender with the Miami Heat, and has enough versatility on both ends of the floor to make him a valued free-agent target—not among the tops on the market, but the kind of role player that helps to win championships.
Martin inked a three-year, $20 million deal in 2022, and is all but certain to opt out of the final year of that contract, slated pay him $7 million in 2024-25, by the June 29 deadline.
“I love the guy, he is a worker, he has gotten the most out of his game because he has worked hard and put in the effort,” one NBA GM said. “He is not going to be at the top of everyone’s wishlist (in free agency) but good teams know he can the kind of player that puts them over the top. He is tough, he is a gutsy linchpin type, he is kind of what they like to think the Heat represent.
“But he can probably go get a midlevel deal somewhere easy enough. He wants more, of course, and maybe a team will go a little higher. But that is probably the sweet spot for him. Unless there is another move, Miami probably can’t go there.”
Miami Heat Will Be Near ‘Second Apron’
Depending on how the Heat’s other player-option decisions shake out, it’s likely that the team will be lingering near the dreaded “second apron” of the NBA luxury tax to open the free-agent period. That will leave Miami with the thinnest of margins, and puts re-signing Martin out of reach.
Coach Erik Spoelstra, after developing him slowly, could be ready to give Nikola Jovic the power forward job next year.
Martin won’t break the bank elsewhere, but with the full midlevel exception coming in at just below $13 million, it’s a good bet that he will want a deal that starts in that range—three years, perhaps, and $40 million.
He will need to drum up interest, though, because the number of teams that will have the midlevel on hand and might be interested in Martin will be limited. Houston, Indiana and Chicago are the most likely destinations for Martin, should he leave Miami and seek that midlevel deal.
He could go to a cap space team like Orlando or San Antonio, but the midlevel teams remain the most likely. Either way, he’s a very, very strong candidate to leave the Miami Heat, and the team is bracing for that.