Heat Trade Proposal Swaps Duncan Robinson for Sharpshooting Big

The five-year, $90 million contract extension Duncan Robinson signed with the Miami Heat in 2021 has been called the “worst contract in the league” by one NBA executive, and that’s a reasonable take.

The contract included $80 million in guaranteed money, per Spotrac, and considering the decline in Robinson’s playing time and performance in recent seasons, calling the shooting guard/small forward overpaid isn’t a stretch. After scoring over 13.1 points a game and shooting over 40% from 3-point range in each of the 2019-2020 and 2020-21 seasons, his numbers dropped in each of the following two seasons (all stats via Basketball Reference).

The 29-year-old scored 10.9 points a game and shot 39.9% from downtown during his 2021-22 campaign, his third straight year as a starter, but this past season, he was replaced by Max Strus and Kevin Love in the starting lineup. Robinson scored 6.4 points a game during the 2022-23 regular season and he made just 32.8% of his shots from beyond the arc, the worst numbers he’s had since his rookie year.

Robinson is due over $18.1 million next season and over $19 million the year after that, but one analyst thinks a struggling Western Conference squad might want to take a chance on him and absorb that hefty contract.

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Heat Swap Robinson, 2023 1st Round Pick in New Trade Proposal

In his May 11 column for Bleacher Report, Greg Swartz put together a list of “realistic trade packages” for some of the league’s worst teams, and he thinks the San Antonio Spurs, who finished at the bottom of the Western Conference with a 22-60 record, might be willing to take on the remainder of Robinson’s contract.

Here’s the trade Swartz proposed:

San Antonio Spurs Receive: 2023 first-round round-pick (No. 18 overall), F Duncan Robinson

Miami Heat Receive: F Doug McDermott, F/C Zach Collins

“Getting the 18th overall selection from Miami would be a nice addition, even if it means taking on Robinson in the process,” Swartz wrote. “The marketing possibilities write themselves thanks to his namesake, and Robinson’s original five-year, $90 million contract will be down to three years and $57.4 million to start next season, with just $9.9 million of his final $19.9 million guaranteed. For a Spurs team with no bad contracts, they can easily absorb this deal.”

Swartz also thinks the Heat might be willing to part ways with their first-round pick this year if it could help them get Robinson’s deal off the books.

“Miami can’t be as patient for Robinson to regain his previously elite shooting levels, a skill McDermott now brings,” Swartz added. “The 31-year-old forward nailed 40.9 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes this past season and was even better on pull-up attempts (42.6 percent). Collins also had a bounce-back season, averaging 11.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists and shooting 37.4 percent from three in his 22.9 minutes a night. Acquiring both, while getting off Robinson’s contract, is worth sacrificing the 2023 first-round pick for Miami.”

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McDermott & Collins Would Give Miami 2 Sharpshooting Bigs

McDermott is due $13.75 million next season, while Collins will earn a base salary of $7.7 million, so the Heat could afford both. With Love and Strus both free agents this summer, Miami will need to replace or retain both, but McDermott and Collins would be suitable replacements.

Last season, McDermott, 31, shot 41.3% from beyond the arc and averaged 10.2 points, shooting 41.3% from 3-point range in 20.5 minutes per game.

Collins is just 25, and after missing the entire 2020-21 season and part of the following year with an ankle injury, he has rebounded nicely. Last season, he averaged a career-high 11.6 points (63 games, 26 starts) and his passing is deceptively good.

This is a hypothetical trade, of course, but the primary hang up would be whether or not Miami would be willing to trade its only first rounder this year. Considering how deep this draft could be, it’s possible, but not likely. Unloading Robinson’s contract will surely appeal, but finding any takers for it could prove to be a challenge.

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