It was seen as a bit of good news earlier this offseason when Heat star Jimmy Butler was reported to have dropped his demand for a contract extension, worth as much as $113 million over two years on top of the two year and $101 million Miami already owes him—a number the Heat were never going to dole out for a player who had trouble staying healthy last season and who turns 35 in September.
The change of heart on Butler’s part was reported by The Athletic in late June, and was good for the Heat because it put an end to the speculation that Butler would seek a trade from the team and head to a team that was willing to pay him the extra two seasons. The Sixers and Warriors were at the fore of that chatter.
But both of those teams prioritized a pursuit of Paul George to open free agency. Maybe of more concern for Butler is that there were no teams on the market (especially once George went to Philadelphia) willing to commit to paying Butler max money beyond his present contract.
If his contract was too cumbersome for other teams this summer, it’s not going to get any easier next summer. That’s the warning to Butler coming from the Miami Herald, which crunched the numbers and surveyed the landscape on Butler this week and came to the conclusion that, “No serous title contender would have the ability to sign Butler into space next summer without moving significant money.”
Heat Would Be in Danger of Losing a Star Player With Nothing Coming Back in Return
Of course, Herald reporter Barry Jackson pointed out that the danger runs two ways. Butler is in peril of not getting a new max deal next summer—it can be worth four years and $243 million with the Heat or three years and $171 million with another team—but the Heat are equally in peril of losing out on Butler with nothing in return.
Losing Butler would drop the Heat well below the luxury tax and allow them to use their $13 million mid-level exception. But it would not create enough space to sign a max free agent, not without jettisoning other salary (Terry Rozier and, perhaps, Duncan Robinson).
Likely the only way for Butler to find a new team on a max deal would be to find a sign-and-trade—a deal that would require Butler and the Heat to find a team willing to make something close to an equitable trade.
“Very few teams (aside from teams in rebuilds) could realistically clear out the cap space to sign Butler to a max deal or anything close to it without the Heat’s assistance to help facilitate a sign-and-trade,” Jackson wrote. “So a sign-and-trade is the more likely outcome if Butler leaves the Heat next summer. The chances of the Heat losing Butler for nothing aren’t high, though not out of the question.”
Jimmy Butler Was Disappointing (& Injured) in 2023-24
All this could be moot if Butler simply returns to health and plays like his old self next year.
After leading the Miami Heat to the NBA Finals in 2023 despite earning just the No. 8 seed in the East, Butler had a disappointing season in 2023-24. He averaged 20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists, the fourth straight season he eclipsed the 20-5-5- plateau, but played only 60 games and failed to earn an All-Star spot for the second straight year.
Butler injured his knee during the Heat’s play-in game before Miami faced the Celtics. He missed the entire series, which the Heat lost in five games.
After the playoff loss, team president Pat Riley, generally a staunch Butler supporter, had a public rebuke of Butler that fueled speculation about the player’s long-term security with the team.
Riley rebuked Butler for trolling the Celtics and Knicks as they advanced in the playoffs, saying the teams would be at home if he had not been injured.
“For him to say that, I thought, ‘Is that Jimmy trolling or is that Jimmy serious?’” Riley said in May. “If you’re not on the court playing against Boston, if you’re not on the court playing against the New York Knicks, you should keep your mouth shut in your criticism of those teams.”
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Heat’s Jimmy Butler Given Strong Warning on Leaving Miami