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Although the New York Knicks fans would likely rather see the 2024-25 season end in an NBA Championship as opposed to winning an Olympic Gold Medal in the 2024 Paris Olympics, a near-perfect prediction model says neither is going to happen.
Prior to the 1992 Olympics, FIBA did not allow NBA players to participate. The United States would challenge that issue, eventually leading to the formation of the Dream Team. Since then, with only one minor exception, every gold medal-winning squad featured a player that would win the next year’s NBA Championship.
The Historical Trend
There have been a total of nine Olympic basketball events since 1992, including the recently finished 2024 Paris Olympics. Between 1992 and 2020, seven of the eight Gold medal teams featured a player that would also go on to win the NBA Championship the following season. The only exception was in 2000, where Kobe Bryant was chosen to be part of the team, but ended up withdrawing because he chose to get married that summer (the Lakers would go on to win the 2001 NBA Championship).
1992 Olympic Gold Winner – USA
1993 NBA Champions – Chicago Bulls
Players on Both Teams: Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen
The original Dream Team. Many forget it was Charles Barkley who led the team in points (98), rebounds (40) and steals (12).
1996 Olympic Gold Winner – USA
1997 NBA Champions – Chicago Bulls
Player on Both Teams: Scottie Pippen
Jordan chose to skip the Atlanta games, leaving others to compete on Dream Team III. It mattered not, as the US didn’t win by less than 22 points in any game.
2000 Olympic Gold Winner – USA
2001 NBA Champions – Los Angeles Lakers
Player on Both Teams: Kobe Bryant*
The Sydney games will always be remembered for Vince Carter’s emphatic dunk over Frederic Weis. Technically, Bryant did not appear for the US team, as he withdrew to get married that summer.
2004 Olympic Gold Winner – Argentina
2005 NBA Champions – San Antonio Spurs
Player on Both Teams: Manu Ginobili
The Athens Olympics remain the only games where the US has not won gold in men’s basketball since professionals have been allowed.
2008 Olympic Gold Winner – USA
2009 NBA Champions – Los Angeles Lakers
Player on Both Teams: Kobe Bryant
In Beijing, the Redeem Team defeated Spain by 11, spearheaded by a relentlessly competitive Bryant, highlighted by the Netflix documentary The Redeem Team.
2012 Olympic Gold Winner – USA
2013 NBA Champions – Miami Heat
Player on Both Teams: LeBron James
London produced a closely contested gold medal game rematch between the US and Spain, with Kevin Durant scoring 30 in a 7-point win.
2016 Olympic Gold Winner – USA
2017 NBA Champions – Golden State Warriors
Players on Both Teams: Klay Thompson, Draymond Green
The US team routed Serbia in Rio by 30 behind another Durant masterpiece, pouring in 30 points on 10-for-19 from the field.
2020 Olympic Gold Winner – USA
2021 NBA Champions – Milwaukee Bucks
Players on Both Teams: Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday
The COVID-19 year, which saw the games postponed until 2021. The NBA Finals didn’t end until July 20, with the Summer Olympics starting in Tokyo just five days later.
Eight Contenders Remain For 2024-25
The 2024 USA Basketball team roster consisted of the following players: LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry, Devin Booker, Tyrese Haliburton, Kevin Durant, Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards, Jrue Holiday, Bam Adebayo and Derrick White.
If the prediction model holds, that leaves the following teams as contenders for the 2025 NBA Championship:
- Golden State Warriors
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Phoenix Suns
- Boston Celtics
- Indiana Pacers
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Miami Heat
Unsurprisingly, each of those teams projects to make the playoffs in 2024-25. The notable missing teams that are top-5 odds favorites are the New York Knicks (+900), Oklahoma City Thunder (+700) and Denver Nuggets (+900).
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