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With the New York Knicks off-season starting earlier than most would have liked, the front office has a string of big decisions to make.
Multiple players are due for contract negotiations, while others may be staring down the barrel of the trade machine. However, one of the first decisions the Knicks front office needs to make, is how much they’re willing to pay former second-round pick, Mitchell Robinson.
The 24-year-old big man is set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season and will be free to discuss terms with opposing teams. Unlike a restricted free agent, the Knicks will not have the option to match any offer sheet, so if they wish to retain their hulking big man they will likely need to outbid other interested parties – which is possible due to the Knicks holding Robinson’s bird rights.
In a recent article for Bleacher Report, Grant Hughes predicts that Robinson will be heading elsewhere once his contract expires, with the Houston Rockets as a predicted destination.
“The Rockets allowed the second-highest conversion rate at the rim this past season, highlighting their need for interior defense. Since his debut in 2018-19, Robinson has had the third-highest block percentage in the league (among players with at least 200 games played).
Christian Wood and Alperen Sengun have no shortage of offensive skill, but neither puts up any resistance on D. Robinson would give the Rockets the deterrent they lack inside,” Hughes wrote.
New York finds themselves in this unfavorable position due to their inability to reach a contract extension with Robinson last summer, and will now enter a bidding war should they wish to keep their big man around long-term.
There’s Still Hope to Extend Robinson
According to Bobby Marks of ESPN, the Knicks can still reach an extension agreement with Robinson, if both parties can agree to a contract value. Otherwise, the rim-protecting center will indeed be free to enter discussions with any team that holds an interest in his services.
“Robinson held opponents to 45.6% shooting in the paint when contesting. That ranked in the top 10 among players to defend at least 300 shots last season. From now until June 30, Robinson can be extended for four years, $58 million. That $14.5 million per year average is what the market for Robinson should be this offseason,” Marks wrote in an off-season primer for ESPN.
Since entering the NBA, the Louisana native has amassed 230 regular-season appearances for New York and is averaging 8.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, and two blocks per game. However, as the NBA continues to trend in the direction of multi-skilled big men, Robinson’s game may be too limited for the Knicks to agree on a deal valued at north of $10 million per season.
Of course, coaching style will also dictate what Robinson’s worth is, both to the Knicks and any other team. If a franchise is running a perimeter-based offense, where their big has to be a mediocre threat from deep, then they’re not going to commit too much cap to a rim-protecting big with little-to-no upside outside of screening on the perimeter – that’s why contending teams like the Miami Heat like their non-shooting bigs to have playmaking ability so that defenses can’t nullify a single player in their rotation.
Robinson had Dominant Stretches This Season
After missing the majority of the 2020-21 season due to injury, Robinson has been a valuable contributor this season, especially on the offensive glass, where he finished second in the NBA. It’s that type of work on the glass that will make the Western Kentucky product so important to a team moving forwards, especially one that has limited success on the perimeter.
However, Robinson has also grown as a rim protector and finished top-5 in blocks per game on the season. Of course, part of the downside to the fourth-year big is his inability to defend outside of the paint, which does leave him susceptible to being targeted in pick-and-roll coverages – but that’s nothing new for throw-back style centers.
In a defensive-orientated system like Tom Thibodeau’s, having an elite rim protector is ideal, especially one who can hurt opposing defenses as a rim-running big and pick-and-roll threat. So, the coming weeks are going to be interesting, because if New York loses their primary center, they’re going to have no choice but to get creative on the free-agency market, and there’s not a guarantee that they will improve the center position by doing so.
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