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James Harden‘s upcoming free agency has been a hot topic for the Philadelphia 76ers, as he has a player option for next season which many believe he will opt out of. While the Sixers offer Harden a fair chance at winning a championship – something he does not have – as well as bird rights, it seems plausible that they hold all the leverage when discussing his next contract.
However, Bryan Toporek of Liberty Ballers brought up the one rule that will limit how much leverage the Sixers have in contract negotiations with Harden.
“Since the Sixers have full Bird rights on Harden, they would typically be able to offer him both one more year and higher annual raises (8 percent) than any of his free-agent suitors this offseason. However, the ‘Over 38 Rule’ in the current collective bargaining agreement will limit the leverage they have over the Rockets in free-agent negotiations.”
Toporek then explained what this rule is, and how it could impact negotiations between Harden and the Sixers.
“The Over 38 Rule applies to any contracts that cover four or more seasons, one of which begins after the player turns 38. In that scenario, the ‘aggregate salaries’ covering a season after the player’s 38th birthday ‘shall be attributed to the prior salary-cap years pro rata on the basis of the salaries for such prior salary-cap years.’
“In plain English: The Sixers can only offer Harden a four-year max contract this summer, not a five-year max.”
What the Sixers Can Offer Harden
Toporek explained in more detail what the Sixers could offer Harden this coming offseason factoring in the “Over 38” rule compared to what other suitors may offer for him.
“As a veteran with 10 or more years of NBA experience, Harden is eligible to receive up to 35 percent of the cap as the starting salary of his new contract. Next year’s salary cap is currently projected to be $134 million, which means neither the Sixers nor any other team can offer him more than $46.9 million in 2023-24. From there, the Sixers can offer 8 percent annual raises, while any other team can only offer him 5 percent.
“Since Harden will turn 34 in August, he’ll be 38 heading into the final season of his contract (which, for Over-38 purposes, begins on Oct. 1). That means his salary in 2027-28—which would be a whopping $61.9 million on a max deal—would have to be divvied up proportionally over the first four years of his contract. But since he’s ineligible to receive more than $46.9 million next season, the Sixers can’t offer him a five-year contract with his maximum salary in 2023-24.”
Toporek explained that the Sixers could offer a five-year deal, but also why Harden likely would not take it.
“The Sixers could still offer Harden a five-year deal, but it can be worth no more than the value of his four-year max contract. In other words, he has zero incentive to sign a five-year deal, since the Sixers would be paying him the exact same amount that they would on a four-year max contract.”
How the Sixers Feel About the Chances of Harden Leaving
Kelly Iko and Sam Amick of The Athletic delved into how Sixers’ personnel feel about the prospect of Harden leaving the Sixers this summer for the Houston Rockets.
“According to a high-ranking Sixers source with knowledge of the team’s operation, they are ‘unconcerned’ about possibly losing him this summer,” Iko and Amick reported. “This confidence, it seems, is rooted in the belief that only Philadelphia can provide the two things Harden holds most dear: A chance to contend for a title, and maximum earning potential.”
However, they added that some players think Harden could be leaving this summer.
“And why, as is the case, do some key Sixers players privately believe that Harden may make this Houston reunion a reality?,” Iko and Amick said.
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