Getty A surprising Patriots' pass-catcher has been tipped to earn his first Pro Bowl berth this season.
In his list of potential first-time Pro Bowlers for the 2023 season, NFL.com’s Kevin Patra chose a surprising name for the New England Patriots. A steady, but unspectacular veteran who would need to match or better two of the league’s best players at his position to earn a Pro Bowl nod.
Hunter Henry might not even be the best tight end on the Patriots roster, but Patra thinks No. 85 “could put up career numbers with the Patriots bringing back offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and New England’s lack of consistent WR targets. He should be a regular red zone target for Mac Jones and could stack TDs. Henry is a reliable pass catcher, something New England sorely needs. I expect Jones to look his way often in high-leverage situations.”
It’s a bold prediction considering the tight end picture within the AFC is dominated by two names. They are All-Pro Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens, as well as Travis Kelce, an eight-time Pro Bowler for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Henry’s unlikely to surpass either Andrews or Kelce statistically, but his more immediate challenge will be outplaying Mike Gesicki. The Patriots signed the latter from AFC East rivals the Miami Dolphins in free agency to be the main receiving threat at the position, but Henry has previously proved his worth to quarterback Mac Jones.
Veteran Faces Uphill Battle to Reach Pro Bowl
Reaching the Pro Bowl will require Henry to post career-high numbers. His best seasons came with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2019 and 2020, when Henry tallied 652 yards in 2019, before making 60 catches a year later.
Henry’s best numbers don’t compare with those of Andrews and Kelce. They’ve dominated defenses as go-to receivers in their respective offenses.
Getting near Kelce and Andrews may be too much to hope for, so Henry’s more immediate ambition should be to take targets away from Gesicki. The latter got a one-year deal worth $4.5 million, a contract he can outperform based on what he might bring to the Pats’ passing game.
Specifically, Gesicki can give the Patriots a big-bodied, roving receiver capable of winning from the slot and being a mismatch in one-on-one situations. Gesicki beat man coverage for fun during the 2021 campaign, per PFF MIA Dolphins.
Tight Ends with the most receptions vs man coverage last season
🥇 Mark Andrews: 33
🥈 Travis Kelce: 27
🥉 Mike Gesicki: 24
Gesicki’s also a chain mover who converted 19 of his 32 receptions last season into first downs, per Pro Football Reference. Returning offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien ought to make greater use of a tight end with Gesicki’s move skills.
Henry won’t be used in as many ways, but he can still prove Pro Bowl-worthy in one area.
Tight End Needs to Revive Red-Zone Dominance
He hasn’t been as productive in New England as he was with the Chargers, but Henry did catch nine touchdowns in 2021. The majority of those scores came from within the red zone, an area where he was targeted at “the highest rate” in football, according to Next Gen Stats.
Mac Jones & Hunter Henry (12-yard TD)
Henry has been targeted on 42% of his routes in the red zone since Week 4, the highest rate in the NFL (min. 30 routes).
Henry also leads the NFL in TD receptions (8) in the red zone over that time frame.
The pattern changed in 2022 when Henry only saw seven targets in the red zone, per Player Profiler. A more limited role inside the 20 meant Henry only snatched two scoring grabs last season, including this one from Jones against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11.
Turkey day TD for @Hunter_Henry84! 🦃
📺: #NEvsMIN on NBC
📱: Stream on NFL+ t.co/TePpxXTdES
Jones needs Henry more involved this year, something that should happen with O’Brien calling the offense. The latter will design a more expansive scheme than the one called by former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia.
Broadening the scope of the playbook will require Jones to air it out more often. He needs dynamic targets on the outside, things DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster and rookie Kayshon Boutte can provide.
Using playmakers on the perimeter is just one piece of the puzzle. Another involves getting receivers open between the numbers, an area where Henry thrives, although his Pro Bowl chances will hinge on how active he is in and around the end zone.
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Patriots ‘Reliable’ Pass Catcher Predicted to Reach First Pro Bowl