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Beating the San Francisco 49ers 28-14 in Week 6 only evened the Atlanta Falcons’ record at 3-3, but one selector for the Pro Football Hall of Fame believes the win could kickstart a “surprise” playoff run.
This longtime NFL writer thinks quarterback Marcus Mariota being a better fit than Matt Ryan for head coach Arthur Smith’s run-first offense will help the “feisty” Falcons’ chances. So will a soft schedule featuring games against struggling teams, including the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears.
‘Feisty’ Falcons Have Playoff Potential
Writing for The Athletic, Hall of Fame selector Mike Sando outlined why the Falcons can make the playoffs: “They have Carolina twice, Chicago, Washington, Pittsburgh and Arizona still on their schedule.”
Sando also highlighted how much the Falcons have improved in EPA (expected points added) from 2021 to this point in the current season. The Falcons, at +8.1, are second only to the 5-1 New York Giants as “the top two gainers.”
Those gains have been made by an unexpectedly prolific offense that shredded the league’s top-ranked defense for three touchdowns. The 49ers were missing several injured starters, including rush end Nick Bosa and defensive tackle Arik Armstead, but Mariota still impressed by moving his unit freely up and down the field and even scoring himself on a three-yard run:
Marcus Mariota: Still very fast.
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Aside from rushing for 50 yards and score, Mariota also completed 13 of 14 passes for 129 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. The performance was Mariota’s best as a Falcon and another reminder of how a changed offense has been the biggest factor in the team’s solid start.
It’s also the best reason Sando has for thinking the playoffs are a possibility.
Mariota Instead of Ryan Working a Treat
Like many, Sando thought the Falcons had made a mistake by trading Ryan, the franchise’s all-time passing leader, to the Indianapolis Colts. Replacing Ryan with Mariota, who spent the past two seasons as backup for the Las Vegas Raiders, looked like an ill-fated gamble.
Yet, Sando now believes the decision is paying off because of how well Mariota fits what Smith wants to do on offense: “I thought the Falcons messed up when their pursuit of Deshaun Watson led them to trade Matt Ryan without an apparent fallback. But they were going to run the ball relentlessly even when they were trailing, and Mariota was a better fit for that type of offense, if he can remain healthy.”
What Smith wants to do is run the ball, keep on running the ball, then run the ball some more. The throwback approach has worked well this season and continued to prove effective against the Niners, when the Falcons ran the rock a whopping 40 times, with Mariota part of a particularly productive trio, per PFF ATL Falcons:
The Falcons had three 50+ yard rushers today:
Caleb Huntley (59)
Tyler Allgeier (51)
Marcus Mariota (50)
A run-heavy offense naturally suits the dual-threat skills of a mobile QB like Mariota. It’s also a style of play he knows well from his days working with Smith when the latter was offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans in 2019.
Although Mariota lost his starting job to Ryan Tannehill that season, he told Sando’s colleague Josh Kendall how comfortable he is with Smith’s playbook: “I really believe in what Arthur’s doing. I really believe in the scheme. I didn’t play well enough (in 2019), and I wanted to have an opportunity to redeem myself to show that I can play in this system.”
The system is working because keeping the ball on the ground is leaving time and space for Mariota to be selective with his passes. His reads are easier off of play-action plays, leading to improved efficiency when he airs it out.
Exploiting defenses committing extra bodies to the run yields big-play opportunities for Mariota’s marquee targets, rookie wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. The latter caught his first touchdown on American soil against the 49ers.
Atlanta’s ball-control offense is also protecting a defense showing signs of life under the guidance of wily coordinator Dean Pees. The Falcons snatched two interceptions and returned a fumble for a touchdown against the Niners, proof of the unit’s steady improvement.
An opportunistic defense combined with a mistake-free and clock-eating offense is an age-old formula for winning ball games. Combined with a slate of matchups against underperforming opponents, as well as an NFC South division with no standout team, the formula can take the Falcons back to the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
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Hall of Fame Selector Explains How Falcons Can Make the Playoffs