Getty Bills QB Josh Allen (left) & Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (right).
The Buffalo Bills (10-6) wrap up the 2023 regular season with a high-stakes Week 18 road game against the Miami Dolphins (11-5).
Despite a roller-coaster season, Buffalo has all but locked up a playoff spot, with a 95% probability of making the big dance, according to the New York Times playoff simulator. A win over Miami, though, would lock up the AFC East division title and the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
There’s also that 5% chance they get eliminated. And know about it before kickoff.
To help you prepare for any wild scenario, here are five predictions generated by Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections model, powered by our partners at Quarter 4:
1. There Will Be Less Scoring Than Vegas Anticipates
Five of the seven major sportsbooks in our database set the over/under line at 49.5 total points, as of Thursday, January 4. The two others — PointsBet and ESPN BET — have come down to 48.5.
Our model is 1.5 to 2 points lower than all, at 47 projected points.
The last time the Bills and Dolphins met back in Week 4, the AFC East rivals combined for 68 points in an offensive track meet in Buffalo. The Bills entered halftime with a 31-14 lead and never relinquished it, winning 48-20.
In the 3 months since, injuries have taken their toll on both sides, particularly on defense.
Over their last four games, the Bills have averaged 25.5 points per game, and the Dolphins 24.5 points. Both are below their respective season averages: 26.9 for Buffalo (6th in NFL) and 30.9 for Miami (1st).
2. The Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs Breakout Game Is Not Upon Us
Stefon Diggs opened the 2023 season with 100-yard performances in 5 of his first 6 games. To the dismay of Bills Mafia, he has topped 75 yards only one time since, and has been held to 4 catches and under 30 yards in 4 of his last 6 games.
Even against a banged-up Dolphins defense, Bills fans should expect more of the same on Sunday. Our model projects Diggs (and QB Josh Allen) to underperform their season averages again:
Diggs projections: 4.7 receptions, 49.9 yards, 0.4 TDs
Allen projections: 18.9 comp, 229.5 pass yards, 1.2 pass TDs, 30.2 rush yards, 0.9 rush TDs
Heads up fantasy managers: That output places Diggs as WR39 in the Week 18 finale. In fact, our model likes fellow WR Gabe Davis (0.5 TDs) as the Bills pass-catcher most likely to score through the air.
3. Tua Tagovailoa Will Surpass 300 Passing Yards for 1st Time in 7 Games
The last time Tua Tagovailoa threw for 300-plus yards came against the Raiders on November 19, a 20-13 Dolphins win.
Our model expects that to change in Week 18, likely as a result of the Dolphins needing to play catch-up late. Our projections peg Tagovailoa for 26.9 completions, 304.0 yards, 1.7 passing TDs and 0.6 INTs.
This season Buffalo’s defense has been more susceptible to the run (110.8 YPG) than the pass (198.4 YPG), but they’re also down CB Tre’Davious White (torn Achilles in Week 4) and are banged up at safety with Micah Hyde and Damar Hamlin on the injury report this week.
With playoff home-field advantage slipping out of Miami’s grip with a loss, everything is on the line for a passing attack that paces the NFL at 409.2 yards per game.
4. Tyreek Hill Will Find the End Zone for 1st Time Since Week 13
While our projections put Tyreek Hill just shy of his eighth 100-yard game of the season, they love his chances to score a touchdown for the first time since December 3:
Hill projections: 6.9 receptions, 96.2 receiving yards, 1.0 TDs
Hill, whose $7 million Miami home caught on fire on Wednesday, was held to a season-low 3 catches for 58 yards in Buffalo in Week 4.
After seeing a combined 12 targets in the team’s first two December games, Tagovailoa has begun peppering his WR1 once again, with 26 targets (15 receptions) in the last two games vs. Dallas and Baltimore.
Hill has caught 5 of his 12 touchdowns at home this season (42%), compared to only 1 of his 7 touchdowns at home in 2022 (14%).
5. The Bills Will Win By More Than a Field Goal
As of Thursday, January 4, our model has a projected point spread of Bills by 4.5 points. That deviates from the consensus of the seven major sportsbooks in our database, all of which like the Bills as favorites, but only by a field goal.
Here’s a look at how the model compares:
| Outlet | Spread | Total |
| Heavy* | Bills -4.5 | 47 |
| BetMGM | Bills -3 | 49.5 |
| DraftKings | Bills -3 | 49.5 |
| FanDuel | Bills -3 | 49.5 |
| ESPNBET | Bills -3 | 48.5 |
| SugarHouse | Bills -3 | 49.5 |
| PointsBet | Bills -3 | 48.5 |
| Bet365 | Bills -3 | 49.5 |
* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.