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One of the biggest question marks for the Buffalo Bills heading into the 2023 NFL season is whether wide receiver Gabe Davis can step up to become the dependable backup to Stefon Diggs that quarterback Josh Allen so desperately needs.
While Davis saw an uptick in stats from 2021 and played through a high ankle sprain suffered in Week 2, he didn’t have the breakout season expected following his four-touchdown playoff performance against the Kansas City Chiefs last year. He finished the 2022 NFL season with 48 receptions for 836 yards and seven touchdowns but struggled with dropped balls and consistency issues.
The former fourth-round pick from the 2020 NFL Draft is firmly entering a “make or break” year, per Pro Football Focus analyst William Moy, as his performance this season will determine whether he’s worth an extension in Buffalo. In the meantime, Davis received a massive pay raise.
While the Bills turned heads by preemptively extending defensive tackle Ed Oliver to a four-year, $68 million extension last month, another player believed to be entering a make-or-break year after such a consistently inconsistent season, Davis’ pay raise is not coming from Buffalo.
The 24-year-old is tripling his base salary through the league’s Proven Performance Escalator (PPE) program, which rewards players on rookie contracts not drafted in the first round if they meet certain criteria. According to OvertheCap.com, Davis earned Level One PPE, which means his base salary will jump from the $895,000 he earned last year to $2.74 million.
In order to earn the Level One pay bump, a player must participate in a certain percentage of a team’s snaps in two of his first three seasons, or average that percentage of snaps over his entire first three years. For second-round picks, the average is 60%, and (as was the same in the 2011 CBA) for third to seventh-round round picks, it’s 35%. Davis easily qualified for the bonus, as he’s participated in an average of 68.8% of snaps over the past three seasons.
Gabe Davis Is Considered the Bills ‘Offensive X-Factor’
The Bills seriously shook up the receivers’ room this offseason, releasing Cole Beasley, John Brown, Isaiah McKenzie, Jake Kumerow, and Jamison Crowder, and supplanting them with Deonte Harty, Trent Sherfield, and rookie Justin Shorter. But without adding an elite veteran like DeAndre Hopkins, the door is still wide open for Davis to cement his role as WR2.
CBS Sports‘ Jared Dubin named Davis as the Bills “offensive X-factor” on Thursday, July 6. “Davis was expected to take a huge step forward as Buffalo’s No. 2 receiver behind Stefon Diggs last season. In the Week 1 game against the Rams, he shined, hauling in four catches for 88 yards and a touchdown. But he also got injured during that game, missed Week 2, and then never really got on track the rest of the year,” Dubin wrote.
“He ended up playing a career-high 91% of the team’s offensive snaps, but saw his catch rate hit a career-low 51.6%… Now healthy and headed into Year 4 of his NFL career, can Davis become a true No. 2? We’re about to find out.”
Bills GM Brandon Beane Blamed Gabe Davis’ Ankle Injury For His Dip in Performance
While much of Bills Mafia is unsure whether Davis can be a reliable high-end WR2, the UCF alum has the support of general manager Brandon Beane. During a press conference at the NFL Combine in February, Beane addressed the criticism surrounding Davis, blaming much of his pitfalls on a lingering injury.
“Coming off that Kansas City game the year before, people probably had some unrealistic expectations,” Beane said, mentioning the high ankle sprain he suffered early in the season. “Not to make excuses, but it definitely bothered him. You can just watch the film when he was coming out of his cuts, he was taking an extra step which allowed that defender to stay attached to him as well. He had a few drops that he definitely wants back, but I’ve got a lot of faith in Gabe.”
The Athletic‘s Joe Buscaglia agrees that Davis’ ankle had a negative impact on his performance, but remains unsure he can become the consistent receiver the team needs, and his future in Buffalo depends on it.
“The lingering question is, how much more explosive and dynamic could Davis have been fully healthy with a similar snap percentage? Or is he just simply a boom-or-bust WR2 who can explode for big games now and then? With so little evidence in a starting role when he’s fully healthy, the Bills might be having a tough time with matching their internal value of the player with the one Davis and his representation think they could garner on the open market in 2024.
“This could be a case of both sides playing the wait-and-see game for at least a part of the 2023 season before any definitive decision is made.”
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