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On Thursday, the NFL released five players for the 2024 NFL MVP Award: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff, and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Jackson is the only MVP winner among the finalists, having won in 2019 and 2023. He may win this third award in the next two weeks.
While the Ravens quarterback is looking to add his third MVP, he has the second-best odds of winning the trophy behind Josh Allen.
The Bills signal-caller is the heavy favorite among sportsbooks to bring home his first MVP at -450, according to DraftKings, with Jackson at +320 and Barkley at +8000.
Barkley had an incredible season in his first year in the City of Brotherly Love, rushing for 2,005 yards and 13 scores. However, a running back hasn’t won the MVP award since Adrian Peterson did it with the Minnesota Vikings in 2012.
The 27-year-old running back will not win his first MVP on February 6th; the race is down to either Jackson or Allen.
Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson
We saw the two quarterbacks go up against each other last week in the Divisional Round, with Buffalo pulling out the 27-25 win. However, the game didn’t count towards the MVP since the award is only for the regular season.
It would be easy to say Allen should win the MVP since he beat Jackson head-to-head at the most critical time.
Figuring out who should be the MVP would be a lot easier if we counted the playoffs in voting, but since we can’t factor that in, it’s all about what the two did over a 17-game stretch.
The MVP is not a statistical award, but if it were, Jackson would win it for a second straight season.
The 28-year-old signal caller had a fantastic year, passing the ball for 4,172 yards and 41 touchdowns and rushing for 915 yards and 4 scores.
Allen also had a great year, throwing for 3,371 yards and 28 touchdowns and rushing for 531 yards and 12 scores.
Looking at what the two did in the box score screams that Jackson should be the MVP; that’s not how the award works.
The MVP stands for Most Valuable Player, and as crazy as it sounds, it’s given to the most valuable player in the league.
There is no denying that Jackson was excellent this season, but he had much more help around him than Allen.
Allen had Less to Work With
This past offseason, Allen lost his number one wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, in a trade and his number two receiver, Gabe Davis, in free agency.
Jackson added a Derrick Henry out of the backfield, who only rushed for over 1,900 yards and 16 scores.
Henry is a first-ballot NFL Hall of Famer, and Jackson also works with a Hall of Fame head coach in John Harbaugh and excellent defense and one of the best tight ends in the league, Mark Andrews.
It’s not like Allen is playing with high schoolers; the talent around him isn’t as great as what Jackson is working with.
Allen had to put together his wide receiving room with Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, rookie Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel, and tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.
Don’t get me wrong, those are some nice players, but he doesn’t have any future NFL Hall of Famers around him like Jackson.
The Bills Quarterback Will Win His First MVP
Buffalo’s defense also experienced turmoil this offseason, with almost every secondary member lost. Hence, the defense had some issues to resolve, and Allen kept the team winning.
Allen’s performance against the best regular-season teams, the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, will also help him win his first MVP.
Allen combined 624 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns while picking up 123 rushing yards and 3 rushing scores combined in both wins.
Buffalo made a statement in both victories and even though Allen fell to Jackson in Week 4, that head-to-head matchup will not matter much in the voting since it happened early in the year.
Another factor suggesting Allen will win the MVP is that, as I’ve said before, Jackson has already won the award twice, making it more likely that voters will not vote for him a third time.
I’m not saying it’s right, but we see this happen in all four major sports; when a player wins two MVPs in a certain period, it’s hard for the voters to vote for them again the following year.
Don’t worry; Jackson will win his third MVP sometime in the next three years, even though the MVP isn’t the award both quarterbacks want to fight for. It’s the one given out at the end of the season called the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Allen still has a chance of achieving that dream this season. If he can take down the Chiefs, he will have an opportunity to reach the Super Bowl on Sunday.
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