Getty Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills looks to throw the ball as Christian Barmore #90 of the New England Patriots applies pressure during the first quarter at Gillette Stadium on December 26, 2021.
The Buffalo Bills 33-21 victory over the New England Patriots in Week 16 was one for the history books. New England’s defense could not stop Bills quarterback Josh Allen, and for the first time in Bill Belichick’s history as a coach (474 games), his team could not force the opposing offense to punt.
Not only did Buffalo (9-6) usurp the top spot in the AFC East from the Patriots (9-6), but their record within the division gives the Bills the edge over New England. If Buffalo can win their final two games, they will win the AFC East title for the second year in a row.
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According to The New York Times playoff machine, the Bills’ odds to make the playoffs this season are now 97%. If the Bills win in Week 17, and the Baltimore Ravens lose to the Los Angeles Rams, they will guarantee themselves a spot in the postseason.
The Bills can clinch a playoff berth next week. Here’s how (per @ESPNStatsInfo):
1. Win + BAL loss OR
2. Win + LV loss + LAC loss
The Bills can also clinch a spot in the playoffs with a Week 17 if they win, and both the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers lose.
Ready for round three?
Patriots-Bills is the most likely NFL playoff matchup (57.8% overall and 48.8% in Wild Card Round), per ESPN’s FPI.
The Bills have a 66% chance to be the No. 3 seed, while the Patriots have a 53% chance to be the No. 6 seed.
The Patriots, however, are not out of playoff contention. In fact, Bills Wire reporter Alaina Getzenberg tweeted that ESPN’s Football Power Index’s prediction for Buffalo’s postseason shows that they’re “most likely” going to face New England again during the playoffs.
Most likely wild card round matchups, per FPI:
Patriots-Bills 49%
Colts-Bengals 37%
Cardinals-Rams 33%
Eagles-Bucs 26%
Cardinals-Cowboys 26%
The first time these two team’s played against one other this season was in Week 13. Despite Patriots quarterback Mac Jones making just three passing attempts, New England defeated the Bills 14-10.
Bleacher Report Also Predicts A 3rd Patriots Vs. Bills Showdown
GettyStefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball during the second quarter against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on December 26, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
While these are all projections, and anything can happen over the next two weeks to seriously shake things up, based on how the AFC division stands heading into Week 17, a third rematch between the Bills and Patriots seems almost imminent.
Bleacher Report‘s Christopher Knox broke down the complexities of the most-likely playoff scenarios in the AFC on December 27 and also came to the conclusion that we should prepare for another rivalry rematch.
Knox sees Bills nabbing the No. 3 seed while the Patriots grab the No. 3 seed. “ The Bills have a chance to jump Cincinnati, as the Bengals face the red-hot Chiefs in Week 17,” Knox surmised. “If that happens, we’re going to be treated to an exciting and physical Round 3 in a series that was split during the regular season. There’s no telling which way this one could go.”
The Bills Have Much Easier Matchups to Close Out the Regular Season than New England
Josh Allen today against the Patriots:
🔹314 Yards
🔹30/47 Completions
🔹3 TDs
🔹64 Rushing Yards
🔹104 Rating
#Bills win 33-21 🏈
While the Bills have a lot to celebrate following their statement victory over the Patriots, they have two more games left before the regular season ends, and they must win at least one to clinch their spot in the postseason.
Allen acknowledged this during the postgame conference on Sunday. “I’m so happy for our guys, how they responded,” Allen said. “But we’ve got two games left and we got to keep going.”
The Bills will look to keep the momentum going when they take on the Atlanta Falcons (7-8) at home in Orchard Park on January 2, 2022. In Week 18, they face the New York Jets (4-11).
Just as the Miami Dolphins fans were rooting for the Buffalo Bills to win yesterday, in a weird turn of events, the Buffalo Bills fans are rooting for the Miami Dolphins tonight.
We are all sick of the Patriots. 😁😉
While the Patriots face the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13) in Week 17, they must then face another resurging AFC East rival, the Miami Dolphins (7-7 heading into Monday Night Football on December 27), in Week 18.
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Bills Vs. Patriots Round 3: AFC East Rivalry Rematch Predicted for Playoffs