Bears Projected to Release $9 Million Veteran Starter in 2023

Getty Head coach Matt Eberflus of the Chicago Bears looks on during the second quarter in the game against the Chicago Bears at Ford Field on January 01, 2023 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)

The Chicago Bears have been in the business of adding veteran talent to their roster for the first month of the 2023 league year, but one of their pricier veterans — Cairo Santos — could soon find himself on the chopping block.

Bleacher Report’s Alex Kay recently dubbed the Bears’ starting placekicker one of the five biggest names who could get released before the end of the 2023 offseason, noting how the potential cap savings of cutting him could set up Chicago to make a transition to a younger, more affordable starter than the 31-year-old for the upcoming season.

“While his field goal accuracy was still on point — Santos converted 21-of-23 tries — it may be time for the Bears to find a kicker who can grow with this team as it prepares to exit its rebuild and become a contender again,” Kay wrote. “With potential cap savings of $3 million via his release, Santos could be replaced by a much cheaper option.”

The Bears are still sitting on a comfortable amount of cap space ahead of the 2023 NFL draft next week — roughly $35.6 million, according to Over the Cap — but they could chew through that space rather quickly once they sign their rookie picks, add another veteran or two from the discard pile and potentially extend some of their current stars. Should more space become necessary, Santos would be a prime cut candidate for them.

Cairo Santos Took a Step Backward for Bears in 2022

Santos’ 21-of-23 field-goal clipping in 2022 might seem good enough for a Bears roster that has a lot of holes to fill on the path to becoming a contender, but a peek under the hood tells a different story. According to Pro Football Focus, Santos received the lowest field-goal grade (48.5) among the 34 kickers who attempted at least 10 field goals on the year. It was the second-lowest mark of his career, right behind the 47.6 that he received during his lone season with Tennessee in 2019 — when he was cut just five games into his tenure after missing four field goals in a single game.

Santos also missed a career-high five PAT tries in 2022, finishing with a brutal 84.4% make rate (27 of 32). One of those misses came in the fourth quarter of the Bears’ one-point loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 10, which allowed the Lions to pull ahead 31-30 with 2:21 remaining and forced the Bears to fight for points instead of settling for overtime on their final drive of the game. While not all of his extra-point mishaps were quite as damaging, it is a red flag for a team hoping to avoid another 3-14 finish.

Santos isn’t exactly breaking the bank for the Bears with $4.5 million of his original $9 million contract due to him in 2023, but it is the 11th-highest cap number on the Bears’ roster ahead of Cole Kmet, Jaylon Johnson and Darnell Mooney. The Bears could avoid paying $3 million of that amount if they cut him before June 1 and could up the savings to $4 million if they designate him as a post-June 1 cut. That might be enough to tempt Bears general manager Ryan Poles if he finds a young kicker who better fits their rebuild plan.

Bears Could Set Up Training Camp Battle at Kicker

If the Bears decide moving on from Santos is an option worth exploring, there are a couple of different approaches they could take to finding a new kicker. The first, and perhaps the most obvious, solution would be drafting one of the better talents in the 2023 class with one of their Day 3 selections and putting the focus on developing him into their next starter. A guy like Michigan’s Jake Moody or Syracuse’s Andre Szmyt — the latter of whom worked out in front of Bears scouts at their local pro day — would give them a younger leg with a higher ceiling on an affordable four-year rookie deal.

The other option would be investing in another kicker in free agency as a challenger to Santos. That could be an undrafted rookie or one of the younger veterans in the league, but the idea would be that the Bears could pit him against Santos in training camp and truly see if moving on from the latter is in their best interests. If Santos loses the battle, the Bears will be able to move on and save money while feeling validated. And if he wins, then the Bears can head into the final year of Santos’ contract with renewed trust.