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Teams like the Chicago Bears, who are young and getting better, are often prone to falling into a particular kind of trap — paying a good player as though he were a great one.
That is precisely what Jacob Infante of Windy City Gridiron warned the Bears regarding tight end Cole Kmet who led the team in catches (50), receiving yards (544) and receiving touchdowns (7) last season, per Pro Football Reference.
While that sentence carries an impressive message about the type of performer Kmet is, it must be noted that Chicago’s air attack finished dead last in the NFL in 2022. Quarterback Justin Fields is poised for a leap in 2023, as is the Bears’ offense as a whole. A better offensive line, better and healthier weapons at wide receiver and a QB with improved confidence and counting statistics all bode well for the potential of a career year for Kmet.
However, should the tight end achieve that kind of campaign, it could price Chicago out of his services. If it doesn’t, that probably means the Bears will overpay to keep him around long-term.
“My honest opinion: Cole Kmet is a good player, but let him get $11-$13 million somewhere else,” Infante tweeted on Sunday, July 16. “He’s a player who’s solid at everything but great at nothing. That’s nice to have on your team, but [is it] someone to attach that kind of money to? I don’t think so.”
Cole Kmet’s Projected Market Value Would Make Him Top-10 Highest-Paid Tight End in NFL
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GettyChicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet is entering the final year of his rookie contract in 2023.
Kmet is entering the final season of his four-year, $7.6 million rookie contract in 2023. Spotrac projects that, as of now, the former second-round pick carries a market value of $11.3 million annually over the course of a new four-year deal.
Chicago can extend Kmet now, and if the Bears offered him a deal in Spotrac’s projected range, that would slot him in as the 10th highest-paid tight end in the NFL based on annual average income, per Over The Cap. If the franchise went as high as the $13 million Infante mentioned Sunday, that would slot Kmet alongside Dawson Knox of the Buffalo Bills in a tie for the eighth highest-paid player at the position.
The difference between Kmet and Knox, or Kmet and just about every other tight end earning a top-10 salary, is that they are all current or recent Pro-Bowl and/or All-Pro selections. Kmet has yet to play at a level high enough to achieve either of those honors.
Cole Kmet May Make Jump From Good to Great in 4th NFL Season
GettyTight end Cole Kmet (left) and quarterback Justin Fields (right) of the Chicago Bears celebrate a touchdown during an NFL game against the Miami Dolphins in November 2022.
That said, Kmet is just 24 years old and has played the bulk of his career with either mediocre or under-experienced quarterbacks. If Fields makes the jump his coaches have been broadcasting as a reasonable prediction for this season, Kmet may leap along with him to official NFL star status.
The question for the Bears will then become: Is Kmet a great player who should be paid like one, or is he a good player who had a great couple of seasons? Should the team decide the answer is the latter and that they can replace much of his production with a cheaper player, then Kmet’s run in Chicago may end.
The flip side of that coin is that general manager Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus might already believe that Kmet is worth a substantial long-term investment and decide to extend him this summer. The tight end is eligible for an early extension, and Chicago might be able to lock him in at a more team-friendly salary before what could be a breakout campaign in 2023.
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