Cowboys Star Anticipated to Leave on $10 Million Deal: Analyst

A Dallas Cowboys star is expected to leave on a big-money deal, according to one analyst.

As predicted by CBS Sports’ Jordan Dajani, Cowboys running back Tony Pollard will leave in free agency. Dajani explains despite the bloated market for running backs, Pollard will draw major interest due to his versatility. The 25-year-old running back just picked up his first Pro Bowl berth after racking up a career-high 1,359 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns as a complementary back to Ezekiel Elliott.

“Pollard picked up Pro Bowl honors this season by racking up a career-high 1,359 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns in 15 games played,” said Dajani. “Whether it’s working in the pass game, beating defenses to the corner off a jet sweep or just operating as your typical back in between the tackles, Pollard is a versatile weapon who teams are going to be bidding on — more so than Barkley, Jacobs or Montgomery.”

Pollard Ranks as Elite RB This Season

Dajani’s assessment is not a far-fetched one. While one could argue Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs are better full-time backs than Pollard, it’s hard to argue against the notion that Pollard is the most versatile and dynamic back in free agency.

According to Pro Football Focus, Pollard has posted a 90.4 offensive grade and 90.0 rushing grade this season. His offensive grade ranks second and his rushing grade ranks fourth among full-time running backs in the league. In other words, Pollard is playing at an elite level this season.

While Spotrac expects Pollard to ink a deal worth $25 million across three seasons, Dajani expects Pollard to actually command an annual deal worth $10 million per year.

“Spotrac projects Pollard will sign a three-year, $25.40 million deal that carries an average annual value of $8.4 million,” says Dajani. “My prediction is it’s going to be higher than that, with his new AAV surpassing $10 million.”

For context, a $10 million-per-year deal would make Pollard the ninth-highest paid running back in the league.

Pollard’s Contract Depends on Cowboys’ Handling of Elliott

There’s little doubt the Cowboys will make re-signing Pollard their No. 1 priority this offseason. However, a big factor is the current contract of Elliott. The Cowboys’ starting running back is due to earn $15 million next season, making him the second-highest paid back in the league.

Dallas will either have to restructure Elliott’s contract or move him off the books. There is an out in Elliott’s contract with a dead cap hit of just under $12 million in the offseason.

Calvin Watkins of Dallas Morning News proposed the idea of the Cowboys giving Pollard the franchise tag in the offseason. The projected franchise tag value for running backs in 2023 is $12.6 million.

“Tony Pollard if he gets on the market will be a rich man,” said Watkins on Dec. 21. “But the franchise tag might be in his future.”

It remains to be seen how the Cowboys handle contract negotiations with Pollard, but there’s little doubt that he may end up emerging as the most coveted back in free agency.

With that being the case, Dallas has to be prepared to open up the checkbook in order to retain their top offensive playmaker.