Getty Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell talks to a referee.
The Detroit Lions have taken on the look of one of the most aggressive teams on fourth down this season, but how good have they really been overall when taking a complete look at Dan Campbell’s work?
It’s not a stretch to say the coach loves to roll the dice with his team, but how good is he at picking the right spots when the rubber meets the road? As a new analysis shows, probably close to the middle of the pack for the 2021 season.
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In terms of their performance, the Lions probably rank right about where people would expect near the middle bottom of the league. Recently, ESPN’s NFL Nation put together a list ranking all of the teams and coaches in the league by how good they are on fourth down. The site used a metric looking at all fourth down calls by a current coach with his current team. They are rated by total win probability sacrificed through fourth-down errors, difference in expected fourth-down conversion rates vs. actual rates and non-obvious fourth-down error rate.
When it came to the Lions, the team and their coach placed 19th in the NFL on this list. Their difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions ranked 32nd in the NFL, while they placed in a tie for 10th in non-obvious fourth-down error rate and 13th in win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors. That averaged out to a finish within the top 20. Not great, but far from last in the league.
Obviously, it’s not all on Campbell in terms of fourth down gaffes. The Lions roster is beyond incomplete at the moment, so it would be reasonable to assume as the team improves, they could push higher on this list in the future. That is the hope considering how things have been up and down at times this year for the team in terms of taking chances on fourth down.
Lions Notable Fourth Down Calls During 2021 Season
It’s been a season full of fourth down calls for the Lions to remember. The team has multiple different fourth down calls in multiple times of the game such as what happened in Week 13, when the rolled the dice on fourth and short twice and came up empty both times. It doesn’t mean going on fourth down hasn’t worked on for the team, however. This season, the Lions came up big in Los Angeles on a few fourth down calls, hitting on fake punts. Outside of the fourth down touchdowns to win the game against Minnesota, that was arguably the biggest and best day for the team on the down this season.
In a season full of gutsy fourth down calls, this one is going to stand out because it ended up being very successful in the end.
Campbell Might Be Most Aggressive Coach in NFL
This season, with a depleted roster, Campbell has shown a willingness to roll the dice and go on fourth down. Rarely has he played things safe from the start of the season until now, and considering the team’s roster limitations and where they are at in the rebuild, that could qualify him as one of the biggest gamblers in the league. Campbell confessed early on that he learned under Sean Payton, who has been one of the more aggressive coaches in the league himself, and a top 15 coach on this very list.
Campbell has made his own mark on the Lions, so it will be interesting to see if he gets even more aggressive as the Lions progress through their rebuild. Smart money could be on that answer being a resounding “yes” given the success he has seen already.
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