The Detroit Lions are closing in on their most successful regular season in three decades. But according to former NFL general manager Jeff Diamond, that might not be enough for the team to feel secure about its future behind center.
Diamond argued in an article for The 33rd Team that the Lions are one of 12 teams that could draft a quarterback this offseason.
“Expectations have risen in Detroit, and if the Lions don’t finish the season strong with an NFC North title and a good postseason showing, [Jared] Goff could be the fall guy,” Diamond wrote. “He’ll especially need to play well in the two matchups with Minnesota over the final three weeks that could decide the division race.
“The Lions won’t have a top-15 pick, but if Goff is a question mark after the season, GM Brad Holmes could try to move up and pick a quarterback to develop or to replace Goff with next season.”
In three seasons as Detroit’s starting quarterback, Jared Goff has averaged 253 passing yards per game with a 21-22-1 record. However, he’s led the Lions to a 17-6 record in his past 23 games.
This season, Goff has thrown for 3,449 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 13 games. The Lions are entering Week 15 in first place of the NFC North with a 9-4 record.
Could the Lions Draft a QB in 2024?
As the Lions showed in the 2023 draft, they aren’t afraid to address the quarterback position even with Goff playing well. Detroit selected Hendon Hooker in the third round this past spring.
But to find a signal caller as a potential replacement for Goff in 2024, the Lions would have to draft a quarterback in the first round. Not only that, but as Diamond noted, the Lions would likely have to trade up because, barring a complete December-January collapse, the Lions will be in the postseason.
That doesn’t seem like a scenario general manager Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell would pursue after earning their first playoff berth. There’s a few reasons why.
Even if the Lions lose in the first round of the playoffs, the franchise is in position to celebrate its first division title in 30 years. That’s obviously a major step that Goff will receive credit for, not blame.
Furthermore, while Goff hasn’t been as sharp in the second half of the season, he hasn’t really been “the fall guy” among Detroit fans. The Lions defense is receiving a lot more criticism than Goff because the unit is allowing an average of 28.7 points per game since Week 7.
Detroit’s defense has held one opponent under 26 points over the past seven games. The Lions are arguably 4-3 during that stretch only because of Goff and the offense.
Finally, if the Lions did want to push Goff in 2024, the organization would likely do that with Hooker, not another drafted quarterback. Although he hasn’t played because of an ACL injury from his senior year of college, the Lions have praised Hooker this season.
Again, the franchise was confident enough in Hooker’s future last year to draft him in the third round.
Lions, QB Jared Goff Already Engaging in Contract Negotiations
Although perhaps outlandish, Diamond’s assertion that the Lions could look to replace Goff as early as 2024 comes at an interesting time. Goff isn’t a pending free agent, but with his contract set to expire after 2024, he’s a candidate to receive an extension this offseason.
On November 13, Spotrac’s Michael Ginnitti projected Goff’s value to be $210 million on a five-year contract.
“If Detroit were to sign him to a contract extension right now (not a horrible idea by the way), 17.8% of the current cap calculates to almost exactly $40M per year,” Ginnitti wrote. “Should the cap rise to $245M next March, his assumed price could rise to almost $44M per year. Let’s not overthink this and split the difference.”
Although a deal has yet to be reached, Holmes has provided more than one update on the Goff contract negotiations since the 2023 draft. Holmes told The Detroit Free Press’ Dave Birkett in September that both sides are committed to finding a contract that works for everyone.
“We’ve kept open dialogue with their agents in camp and I think the transparency has been good, so we’ll see how it goes,” said Holmes.
With that in mind, it appears that Goff’s play would have to fall off a cliff for the Lions to change course and draft his replacement next spring.
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Former NFL GM Stirs the Pot on Lions QB Plan: ‘Goff Could Be the Fall Guy’