Packers Predicted to Cut $20 Million Star, Hit Reset Button

Getty Head coach Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers walks onto the field during warmups before a preseason game against the New Orleans Saints at Lambeau Field on August 19, 2022 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

The Green Bay Packers are staring down the barrel of some gut-wrenching decisions, including parting ways with one of the franchise’s tentpole players.

Aaron Jones has been a stalwart of the Packers offense ever since the team selected him in the fifth round of the 2017 NFL Draft. However, the running back’s time in Green Bay may soon come to an end.

That isn’t because Jones’ play is declining or because the Packers wouldn’t like to keep him around. The move would be strictly a financial one, which reflects the continued devaluation of the running back position across the entire league.

Green Bay is nearly $16.5 million over the salary cap heading into next year and parting ways with Jones saves the team in the neighborhood of $10.5 million, as the running back will count just over $20 million against the cap in 2023. In a game predicated as much on dollars and cents as on-field performance, moving on from Jones is unfortunately what amounts to good business in Green Bay this offseason.

Jones to be NFL’s Most Expensive RB in 2023 if Packers Retain Him

GettyRunning back Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers walks out to the field for warmups before a game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on December 25, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)

On Thursday, February 9, Alex Kay of Bleacher Report predicted Jones among the NFL’s five “most surprising cuts” of the offseason.

Considering the team missed out on the playoffs and had a losing season for the first time since 2018, it simply doesn’t make much financial sense to keep a running back with the largest cap hit at his position in the league.

While trading Jones or restructuring his contract are both options the team can explore, there is also a real chance the Packers simply release the back if they can’t get either of those done.

Jones will be 29 years old next season and could suffer a sharp decline in the near future. There are countless instances of backs at his age falling off and Green Bay will not want to be left holding the bag if it starts occurring this year, especially not when the team has to retool several positions to regain the contender status it lost in 2022.

Cutting a player like Jones is easier for the Packers this season than it would normally be because running back A.J. Dillon is sitting on the roster right behind him. Dillon, a former second-round pick in 2020, is entering the fourth year of his rookie contract and carries a cap hit of less than $1.7 million.

Dillon produced 770 rushing yards and seven touchdowns for the Packers last season on a total of 186 carries. He also caught 28 passes, amassing 206 receiving yards.

Packers Should Try to Trade Jones, But May Not Have Any Luck

GettyRunning back Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers runs with the football during a game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField on October 23, 2022 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

That the Packers would cut Jones rather than trade him is perhaps the most surprising detail of the entire scenario. Jones put up 1,121 rushing yards on 213 carries last season while scoring two rushing touchdowns. A true dual-threat back, he also caught 59 passes for 395 yards and five scores, per Pro Football Reference.

Based on his statistics, Jones sounds like the kind of player several teams would salivate over, which is probably true. The issue is how much more expensive it would be for another franchise to trade for Jones when they can simply wait out the Packers. Unless Green Bay is willing to absorb the largest running back cap hit in the NFL, the team will eventually be forced to cut Jones from the payroll, allowing a competitor to swoop in and acquire him for less.

For what it’s worth, general manager Brian Gutekunst said during a January 13 press conference that expects Jones to be with the franchise next season. But cagey public comments are as much a part of the NFL game as the action on Sundays, meaning anything a GM tells reporters openly must be taken with a grain of salt.

Gutekunst saying flatly that the Packers want and intend to keep Jones on the roster in 2023 could be a ploy to drive the running back’s trade value up and keep it there as the Packers try to get a return on their investment — and that’s just one possible for instance. Of course, Gutekunst could also be telling 100% the truth. Packers fans will know sooner than later either way, but should also prepare for the legitimate possibility that Jones is playing in a different uniform come September.